{"id":123403,"date":"2025-06-20T08:02:54","date_gmt":"2025-06-20T16:02:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/xira.com\/p\/2025\/06\/20\/a-new-middle-eastern-war-ignites-markets-swing-on-early-bets-that-trump-will-chicken-out-again\/"},"modified":"2025-06-20T08:02:54","modified_gmt":"2025-06-20T16:02:54","slug":"a-new-middle-eastern-war-ignites-markets-swing-on-early-bets-that-trump-will-chicken-out-again","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/xira.com\/p\/2025\/06\/20\/a-new-middle-eastern-war-ignites-markets-swing-on-early-bets-that-trump-will-chicken-out-again\/","title":{"rendered":"A New Middle Eastern War Ignites, Markets Swing On Early Bets That Trump Will Chicken Out Again"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"\"
(Photo by David Becker\/Getty Images)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Though Iran and Israel have never exactly been on friendly terms, the conflict between the two nations had quieted significantly until last Friday, when Israel launched major attacks<\/a> against nuclear and military infrastructure in Tehran. Iran retaliated. As of Tuesday afternoon, at least 224 people in Iran and 24 people in Israel had been killed.<\/p>\n

Donald Trump, in turn, launched a series of media statements and social media posts. \u201cI\u2019m not looking at a ceasefire,\u201d the president told reporters aboard Air Force One<\/a>. \u201cWe\u2019re looking at better than a ceasefire.\u201d When asked to elaborate, Trump indicated that his proposed solution might involve Iran \u201cgiving up entirely\u201d and added, \u201cI\u2019m not too much in the mood to negotiate.\u201d<\/p>\n

Later, in a social media post directed at Iran\u2019s leader, the president demanded Iran\u2019s \u201cUNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER.\u201d<\/p>\n

Israel is justifying its attacks on the basis of Iran moving increasingly closer to developing a nuclear weapon. Trump himself stated<\/a> (once again on his own cash-grab social media platform), \u201cSomebody please explain to kooky Tucker Carlson that, \u2018IRAN CAN NOT HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON!\u2019\u201d You might recall that an extensive, years-long negotiation conducted by the Obama administration resulted in a multinational deal with Iran that was indeed aimed at preventing Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon. Trump unilaterally backed out of this deal in 2018 during his first term, calling it<\/a> \u201ca horrible one-sided deal that should have never, ever been made\u201d without any real substantive criticisms of its terms beyond the fact that it came about during the tenure of his predecessor.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, the stock market melted down after the outbreak of hostilities on Friday. Monday, though, saw a huge market rally<\/a> amid signals that Iran wanted to negotiate -\u2013 Wall Street got in early this time on the TACO trade<\/a>, assuming that all it would take to get the United States on board with a peace plan was a marginally cooperative adversary and the hinted appearance of a quick win for Trump.<\/p>\n

The euphoria did not last, however, as traders grimly absorbed news of a second American aircraft carrier headed toward the Middle East<\/a> as well as dozens of additional military jets<\/a> being positioned within striking distance of Iran. The stock market tanked anew on Tuesday.<\/p>\n

Again and again, Trump has made big threats and big promises, then chickened out when he saw the kind of punishment the markets would inflict on him for following through. This approach, pathology, whatever you want to call it, has not worked out so badly in certain instances. For example, when Trump replaced the North American Free Trade Agreement<\/a> between the U.S., Canada, and Mexico with the USMCA during his first term, making mostly cosmetic changes but claiming a big win after chickening out on his original threat to scrap NAFTA entirely, everything was more or less fine afterward.<\/p>\n

Big threats absent real leverage then almost immediately backing down has not worked so well for Trump in other instances. When Trump started a global trade war earlier this year, he quickly declared a truce on the most ridiculous of his tariffs to salvage the markets, but even after months of negotiations and repeated declarations by Trump himself of historic \u201cdeals,\u201d we are worse off than when we started<\/a>. China has more leverage than the United States when it comes to trade, it has a leader who is willing to follow through, and, to quote from the third installment of the \u201cBack to the Future\u201d series, it knows that Trump\u2019s tough talk is no more than \u201chot air from a buffoon.\u201d Trump will not be able to negotiate us into a better trade position with China.<\/p>\n

Now, consider that in dealing with the Israel-Iran conflict, we are not talking merely about shipping products around the world: we are talking about people\u2019s very lives. Every bomb dropped in war creates more new enemies than it kills, making it very difficult to simply pull the plug and walk away once one nation attacks another. Trump is going to chicken out on Iran at some point. The market dip on Tuesday was the dawning realization that by the time he is ready to chicken out, this time, he might no longer be able to. If that happens, we will all have far bigger things to worry about than the stock market.<\/p>\n

\n

Jonathan Wolf is a civil litigator and author of\u00a0<\/em><\/strong>Your Debt-Free JD<\/em><\/strong><\/a>\u00a0(affiliate link). He has taught legal writing, written for a wide variety of publications, and made it both his business and his pleasure to be financially and scientifically literate. Any views he expresses are probably pure gold, but are nonetheless solely his own and should not be attributed to any organization with which he is affiliated. He wouldn\u2019t want to share the credit anyway. He can be reached at\u00a0<\/em><\/strong>jon_wolf@hotmail.com<\/em><\/strong><\/a>.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/p>\n

The post A New Middle Eastern War Ignites, Markets Swing On Early Bets That Trump Will Chicken Out Again<\/a> appeared first on Above the Law<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\"\"
(Photo by David Becker\/Getty Images)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Though Iran and Israel have never exactly been on friendly terms, the conflict between the two nations had quieted significantly until last Friday, when Israel launched major attacks<\/a> against nuclear and military infrastructure in Tehran. Iran retaliated. As of Tuesday afternoon, at least 224 people in Iran and 24 people in Israel had been killed.<\/p>\n

Donald Trump, in turn, launched a series of media statements and social media posts. \u201cI\u2019m not looking at a ceasefire,\u201d the president told reporters aboard Air Force One<\/a>. \u201cWe\u2019re looking at better than a ceasefire.\u201d When asked to elaborate, Trump indicated that his proposed solution might involve Iran \u201cgiving up entirely\u201d and added, \u201cI\u2019m not too much in the mood to negotiate.\u201d<\/p>\n

Later, in a social media post directed at Iran\u2019s leader, the president demanded Iran\u2019s \u201cUNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER.\u201d<\/p>\n

Israel is justifying its attacks on the basis of Iran moving increasingly closer to developing a nuclear weapon. Trump himself stated<\/a> (once again on his own cash-grab social media platform), \u201cSomebody please explain to kooky Tucker Carlson that, \u2018IRAN CAN NOT HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON!\u2019\u201d You might recall that an extensive, years-long negotiation conducted by the Obama administration resulted in a multinational deal with Iran that was indeed aimed at preventing Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon. Trump unilaterally backed out of this deal in 2018 during his first term, calling it<\/a> \u201ca horrible one-sided deal that should have never, ever been made\u201d without any real substantive criticisms of its terms beyond the fact that it came about during the tenure of his predecessor.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, the stock market melted down after the outbreak of hostilities on Friday. Monday, though, saw a huge market rally<\/a> amid signals that Iran wanted to negotiate -\u2013 Wall Street got in early this time on the TACO trade<\/a>, assuming that all it would take to get the United States on board with a peace plan was a marginally cooperative adversary and the hinted appearance of a quick win for Trump.<\/p>\n

The euphoria did not last, however, as traders grimly absorbed news of a second American aircraft carrier headed toward the Middle East<\/a> as well as dozens of additional military jets<\/a> being positioned within striking distance of Iran. The stock market tanked anew on Tuesday.<\/p>\n

Again and again, Trump has made big threats and big promises, then chickened out when he saw the kind of punishment the markets would inflict on him for following through. This approach, pathology, whatever you want to call it, has not worked out so badly in certain instances. For example, when Trump replaced the North American Free Trade Agreement<\/a> between the U.S., Canada, and Mexico with the USMCA during his first term, making mostly cosmetic changes but claiming a big win after chickening out on his original threat to scrap NAFTA entirely, everything was more or less fine afterward.<\/p>\n

Big threats absent real leverage then almost immediately backing down has not worked so well for Trump in other instances. When Trump started a global trade war earlier this year, he quickly declared a truce on the most ridiculous of his tariffs to salvage the markets, but even after months of negotiations and repeated declarations by Trump himself of historic \u201cdeals,\u201d we are worse off than when we started<\/a>. China has more leverage than the United States when it comes to trade, it has a leader who is willing to follow through, and, to quote from the third installment of the \u201cBack to the Future\u201d series, it knows that Trump\u2019s tough talk is no more than \u201chot air from a buffoon.\u201d Trump will not be able to negotiate us into a better trade position with China.<\/p>\n

Now, consider that in dealing with the Israel-Iran conflict, we are not talking merely about shipping products around the world: we are talking about people\u2019s very lives. Every bomb dropped in war creates more new enemies than it kills, making it very difficult to simply pull the plug and walk away once one nation attacks another. Trump is going to chicken out on Iran at some point. The market dip on Tuesday was the dawning realization that by the time he is ready to chicken out, this time, he might no longer be able to. If that happens, we will all have far bigger things to worry about than the stock market.<\/p>\n

\n

Jonathan Wolf is a civil litigator and author of\u00a0<\/em><\/strong>Your Debt-Free JD<\/em><\/strong><\/a>\u00a0(affiliate link). He has taught legal writing, written for a wide variety of publications, and made it both his business and his pleasure to be financially and scientifically literate. Any views he expresses are probably pure gold, but are nonetheless solely his own and should not be attributed to any organization with which he is affiliated. He wouldn\u2019t want to share the credit anyway. He can be reached at\u00a0<\/em><\/strong>jon_wolf@hotmail.com<\/em><\/strong><\/a>.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/p>\n

The post A New Middle Eastern War Ignites, Markets Swing On Early Bets That Trump Will Chicken Out Again<\/a> appeared first on Above the Law<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

(Photo by David Becker\/Getty Images) Though Iran and Israel have never exactly been on friendly terms, the conflict between the two nations had quieted significantly until last Friday, when Israel launched major attacks against nuclear and military infrastructure in Tehran. Iran retaliated. As of Tuesday afternoon, at least 224 people in Iran and 24 people […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":123287,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[16],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-123403","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-above_the_law"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/xira.com\/p\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/GettyImages-1965959342-scaled-N4T6Fe.jpeg?fit=2560%2C1707&ssl=1","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/xira.com\/p\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/123403","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/xira.com\/p\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/xira.com\/p\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/xira.com\/p\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/xira.com\/p\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=123403"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/xira.com\/p\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/123403\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/xira.com\/p\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/123287"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/xira.com\/p\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=123403"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/xira.com\/p\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=123403"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/xira.com\/p\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=123403"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}