{"id":123785,"date":"2025-06-23T09:22:30","date_gmt":"2025-06-23T17:22:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/xira.com\/p\/2025\/06\/23\/ba-ba-ba-ba-bomb-iran\/"},"modified":"2025-06-23T09:22:30","modified_gmt":"2025-06-23T17:22:30","slug":"ba-ba-ba-ba-bomb-iran","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/xira.com\/p\/2025\/06\/23\/ba-ba-ba-ba-bomb-iran\/","title":{"rendered":"Ba- Ba- Ba-, Ba- Bomb Iran"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"\"
<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Iran presents a real dilemma.<\/p>\n

I\u2019m writing this on Saturday, and the United States is not (yet) bombing Iran.<\/p>\n

For Donald Trump, this is great.\u00a0It\u2019s great if Israel solves the Iran problem \u2014 eliminating Iran\u2019s path to a nuclear weapon \u2014 without the United States getting involved.\u00a0Trump can claim to have achieved a great victory without the United States having paid any price.<\/p>\n

Alternatively, it\u2019s great for Donald Trump if he can mean-tweet his way out of a crisis.\u00a0If Trump can threaten to kill the leadership of Iran, as he has, without actually doing anything, and if, as Trump hopes, Iran surrenders unconditionally, Trump will again have achieved a great victory at no cost.<\/p>\n

Or perhaps the Iranian regime will accept some face-saving compromise with Trump that allows both the U.S. and Iran to declare victory, and the U.S. would never have to join the fray.<\/p>\n

Any of these solutions, from the perspective of the United States, would be extraordinary.\u00a0(I\u2019m setting aside the local costs, such as the Iranians and Israelis who will have been killed or wounded, upending relationships between governments, and the like.\u00a0I\u2019m being parochial here.)<\/p>\n

Trump faces a crisis only if he must make a hard decision.\u00a0If the Israeli bombs and the mean tweets don\u2019t work, Trump faces an excruciatingly hard choice.<\/p>\n

I\u2019m certainly glad that Trump has a former Fox News host serving as his secretary of defense available to give him advice.<\/p>\n

If Trump has to act, what should he do?<\/p>\n

On the one hand, Trump can choose not to bomb Iran. Iran will develop nuclear weapons.\u00a0Iran may choose to use one of those weapons on Tel Aviv.\u00a0Israel would of course retaliate.\u00a0It would not look good to have World War III, or something like it, occur on Trump\u2019s watch.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

Although I\u2019m sure that, if World War III happened, Trump would explain that this was his brilliant plan to solve the Middle East crisis once and for all.\u00a0And the MAGA loyalists would of course agree.<\/p>\n

Even if Iran develops a nuclear weapon and does not immediately trigger a holocaust, that doesn\u2019t solve the problem.\u00a0As North Korea has demonstrated, once Iran has nukes, it is permanently immune from attack.\u00a0No matter what Iran might do, its leaders could proceed confidently, knowing that neither Israel nor the United States would attack it.\u00a0That would permit Iran to do many evil things in the future.<\/p>\n

Moreover, other countries in the Middle East \u2014 such as Saudi Arabia and perhaps Egypt \u2014 won\u2019t sit by silently as Iran develops the bomb.\u00a0Those countries will develop their own nuclear weapons, and we\u2019ll have multiple nuclear-armed states in one of the most combustible regions in the world.\u00a0That might not yet be World War III, but it ain\u2019t good.<\/p>\n

On the other hand, Trump can choose to bomb Iran, temporarily eliminating its nuclear weapons program.\u00a0Iran will surely respond, perhaps by attacking American troops stationed in the Middle East, perhaps by attacking shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, perhaps by attacking energy infrastructure to raise the price of oil, perhaps by attacking American soft targets around the world, perhaps by launching cyberattacks on the United States; you don\u2019t need much of an imagination here.\u00a0Everywhere you look, it\u2019s bad.<\/p>\n

At the end of the day, Iran\u2019s nuclear weapons program will have been temporarily destroyed. But that program would likely build back \u2014 deep underground, where no one can monitor it \u2014 so Iran would ultimately develop a nuclear weapon, after all.\u00a0In the meantime, the United States will have suffered, one way or the other and, after the bombing stopped, there would be another failed state in the Middle East.\u00a0The United States can try to turn the remnants of Iran into a liberal democracy, but that generally doesn\u2019t turn out too well \u2014 think of Afghanistan and Iraq as the most recent examples.<\/p>\n

If I had to guess, I\u2019d say that the United States will bomb Iran.\u00a0Trump has said that Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon.\u00a0For Trump to have said that, and then left Iran with the capacity to manufacture a nuclear weapon, would make Trump look weak.\u00a0Trump can\u2019t tolerate apparent weakness, so he\u2019ll bomb Iran, consequences be damned.<\/p>\n

The counterargument, of course, is that Trump always chickens out.\u00a0Although Trump would love the first day when we bombed Iran \u2014 lots of loud explosions and everyone\u2019s paying attention to me! \u2014 he\u2019d hate the day after, when he\u2019d have to deal with the consequences.\u00a0Since Trump has no guiding principles, he may just chicken out to reduce the immediate criticism he\u2019d have to face.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Either way, I can tell you this:<\/p>\n

If Trump chooses not to attack, six months from now pundits will insist that was a bad idea.<\/p>\n

If instead Trump chooses to attack, six months from now pundits will insist that was a bad idea.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s why it\u2019s easy to be a pundit, but hard to be the president.<\/p>\n

On the third hand, six months from now, whatever the result, I guarantee you that Trump himself will insist that the underlying problems were not his fault and his decisions were uniformly perfect.<\/p>\n

The man is a fool, but he sleeps well at night.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\n

Mark\u00a0Herrmann\u00a0spent 17 years as a partner at a leading international law firm and later oversaw litigation, compliance and employment matters at a large international company. He is the author of\u00a0<\/em><\/strong>The Curmudgeon\u2019s Guide to Practicing Law<\/em><\/strong><\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0<\/em><\/strong>Drug and Device Product Liability Litigation Strategy<\/em><\/strong><\/a>\u00a0(affiliate links). You can reach him by email at\u00a0<\/em><\/strong>inhouse@abovethelaw.com<\/em><\/strong><\/a>.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

The post Ba- Ba- Ba-, Ba- Bomb Iran<\/a> appeared first on Above the Law<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\"\"
<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Iran presents a real dilemma.<\/p>\n

I\u2019m writing this on Saturday, and the United States is not (yet) bombing Iran.<\/p>\n

For Donald Trump, this is great.\u00a0It\u2019s great if Israel solves the Iran problem \u2014 eliminating Iran\u2019s path to a nuclear weapon \u2014 without the United States getting involved.\u00a0Trump can claim to have achieved a great victory without the United States having paid any price.<\/p>\n

Alternatively, it\u2019s great for Donald Trump if he can mean-tweet his way out of a crisis.\u00a0If Trump can threaten to kill the leadership of Iran, as he has, without actually doing anything, and if, as Trump hopes, Iran surrenders unconditionally, Trump will again have achieved a great victory at no cost.<\/p>\n

Or perhaps the Iranian regime will accept some face-saving compromise with Trump that allows both the U.S. and Iran to declare victory, and the U.S. would never have to join the fray.<\/p>\n

Any of these solutions, from the perspective of the United States, would be extraordinary.\u00a0(I\u2019m setting aside the local costs, such as the Iranians and Israelis who will have been killed or wounded, upending relationships between governments, and the like.\u00a0I\u2019m being parochial here.)<\/p>\n

Trump faces a crisis only if he must make a hard decision.\u00a0If the Israeli bombs and the mean tweets don\u2019t work, Trump faces an excruciatingly hard choice.<\/p>\n

I\u2019m certainly glad that Trump has a former Fox News host serving as his secretary of defense available to give him advice.<\/p>\n

If Trump has to act, what should he do?<\/p>\n

On the one hand, Trump can choose not to bomb Iran. Iran will develop nuclear weapons.\u00a0Iran may choose to use one of those weapons on Tel Aviv.\u00a0Israel would of course retaliate.\u00a0It would not look good to have World War III, or something like it, occur on Trump\u2019s watch.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

Although I\u2019m sure that, if World War III happened, Trump would explain that this was his brilliant plan to solve the Middle East crisis once and for all.\u00a0And the MAGA loyalists would of course agree.<\/p>\n

Even if Iran develops a nuclear weapon and does not immediately trigger a holocaust, that doesn\u2019t solve the problem.\u00a0As North Korea has demonstrated, once Iran has nukes, it is permanently immune from attack.\u00a0No matter what Iran might do, its leaders could proceed confidently, knowing that neither Israel nor the United States would attack it.\u00a0That would permit Iran to do many evil things in the future.<\/p>\n

Moreover, other countries in the Middle East \u2014 such as Saudi Arabia and perhaps Egypt \u2014 won\u2019t sit by silently as Iran develops the bomb.\u00a0Those countries will develop their own nuclear weapons, and we\u2019ll have multiple nuclear-armed states in one of the most combustible regions in the world.\u00a0That might not yet be World War III, but it ain\u2019t good.<\/p>\n

On the other hand, Trump can choose to bomb Iran, temporarily eliminating its nuclear weapons program.\u00a0Iran will surely respond, perhaps by attacking American troops stationed in the Middle East, perhaps by attacking shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, perhaps by attacking energy infrastructure to raise the price of oil, perhaps by attacking American soft targets around the world, perhaps by launching cyberattacks on the United States; you don\u2019t need much of an imagination here.\u00a0Everywhere you look, it\u2019s bad.<\/p>\n

At the end of the day, Iran\u2019s nuclear weapons program will have been temporarily destroyed. But that program would likely build back \u2014 deep underground, where no one can monitor it \u2014 so Iran would ultimately develop a nuclear weapon, after all.\u00a0In the meantime, the United States will have suffered, one way or the other and, after the bombing stopped, there would be another failed state in the Middle East.\u00a0The United States can try to turn the remnants of Iran into a liberal democracy, but that generally doesn\u2019t turn out too well \u2014 think of Afghanistan and Iraq as the most recent examples.<\/p>\n

If I had to guess, I\u2019d say that the United States will bomb Iran.\u00a0Trump has said that Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon.\u00a0For Trump to have said that, and then left Iran with the capacity to manufacture a nuclear weapon, would make Trump look weak.\u00a0Trump can\u2019t tolerate apparent weakness, so he\u2019ll bomb Iran, consequences be damned.<\/p>\n

The counterargument, of course, is that Trump always chickens out.\u00a0Although Trump would love the first day when we bombed Iran \u2014 lots of loud explosions and everyone\u2019s paying attention to me! \u2014 he\u2019d hate the day after, when he\u2019d have to deal with the consequences.\u00a0Since Trump has no guiding principles, he may just chicken out to reduce the immediate criticism he\u2019d have to face.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Either way, I can tell you this:<\/p>\n

If Trump chooses not to attack, six months from now pundits will insist that was a bad idea.<\/p>\n

If instead Trump chooses to attack, six months from now pundits will insist that was a bad idea.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s why it\u2019s easy to be a pundit, but hard to be the president.<\/p>\n

On the third hand, six months from now, whatever the result, I guarantee you that Trump himself will insist that the underlying problems were not his fault and his decisions were uniformly perfect.<\/p>\n

The man is a fool, but he sleeps well at night.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\n

Mark\u00a0Herrmann\u00a0spent 17 years as a partner at a leading international law firm and later oversaw litigation, compliance and employment matters at a large international company. He is the author of\u00a0<\/em><\/strong>The Curmudgeon\u2019s Guide to Practicing Law<\/em><\/strong><\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0<\/em><\/strong>Drug and Device Product Liability Litigation Strategy<\/em><\/strong><\/a>\u00a0(affiliate links). You can reach him by email at\u00a0<\/em><\/strong>[email\u00a0protected]<\/em><\/strong><\/a>.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Iran presents a real dilemma. I\u2019m writing this on Saturday, and the United States is not (yet) bombing Iran. For Donald Trump, this is great.\u00a0It\u2019s great if Israel solves the Iran problem \u2014 eliminating Iran\u2019s path to a nuclear weapon \u2014 without the United States getting involved.\u00a0Trump can claim to have achieved a great victory […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":123768,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[16],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-123785","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-above_the_law"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/xira.com\/p\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/nuclear-option-mushroom-cloud-kU12GA.jpeg?fit=640%2C429&ssl=1","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/xira.com\/p\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/123785","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/xira.com\/p\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/xira.com\/p\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/xira.com\/p\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/xira.com\/p\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=123785"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/xira.com\/p\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/123785\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/xira.com\/p\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/123768"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/xira.com\/p\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=123785"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/xira.com\/p\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=123785"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/xira.com\/p\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=123785"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}