{"id":124922,"date":"2025-06-30T13:43:54","date_gmt":"2025-06-30T21:43:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/xira.com\/p\/2025\/06\/30\/does-trump-in-fact-deserve-the-nobel-peace-prize\/"},"modified":"2025-06-30T13:43:54","modified_gmt":"2025-06-30T21:43:54","slug":"does-trump-in-fact-deserve-the-nobel-peace-prize","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/xira.com\/p\/2025\/06\/30\/does-trump-in-fact-deserve-the-nobel-peace-prize\/","title":{"rendered":"Does Trump In Fact Deserve The Nobel Peace Prize?"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"\"
<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Last week, before the United States started bombing Iran,\u00a0I speculated<\/a> about whether we would actually drop bombs and, if so, what Iran\u2019s reaction would be.<\/p>\n

I must admit, I never even considered the possibility that Donald Trump\u2019s strategy might work:\u00a0Drop a bunch of bunker busters in a single bombing run; hope that Iran\u2019s response would be insignificant; proceed from there to a ceasefire and a peace deal.<\/p>\n

Ridiculous!<\/p>\n

My bad.<\/p>\n

At first glance, it appears as though Trump has pulled off a near-miracle.<\/p>\n

Hats off to him.<\/p>\n

Not just the Nobel Peace Prize.\u00a0Make the man a saint.<\/p>\n

Thomas Babington\u00a0Macaulay wrote<\/a>\u00a0of James Boswell (Samuel Johnson\u2019s biographer) that Boswell was:<\/p>\n

\n

Servile and impertinent, shallow and pedantic, a bigot and a sot, bloated with family pride, and eternally blustering about the dignity of a born gentleman, yet stooping to be a talebearer, an eavesdropper, a common butt in the taverns of London \u2026 .<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

And Macaulay was just getting warmed up.\u00a0But\u00a0Macaulay concluded<\/a>:<\/p>\n

\n

Homer is not more decidedly the first of heroic poets, Shakespeare is not more decidedly the first of dramatists, Demosthenes is not more decidedly the first of orators, than Boswell is the first of biographers. He has no second. He has distanced all his competitors so decidedly that it is not worth while to place them. Eclipse is first, and the rest nowhere.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

I was thinking the same about Trump:\u00a0He\u2019s a narcissist and a sociopath.\u00a0He\u2019s a felon and a rapist (as that word is commonly understood).\u00a0He\u2019s an insurrectionist and a fraud.\u00a0He\u2019s a liar and a blowhard.\u00a0And he\u2019s an asshole. But maybe the bastard really does deserve the Nobel Peace Prize.\u00a0He\u2019s eliminated the threat of a nuclear Iran, ended the war between Iran and Israel, and brought Iran back to the negotiating table.<\/p>\n

That annoyed me no end \u2014 he\u2019s such a jerk! \u2014 but I briefly believed it.<\/p>\n

Then I thought harder.<\/p>\n

Iran can still retaliate against the United States.\u00a0Iran could still counterattack against the U.S. in a way that reveals Iran\u2019s involvement in the counterattack \u2014 for example, firing missiles directly from Iran or launching cyberattacks easily traceable to the country.<\/p>\n

If I were Iran, I wouldn\u2019t do that.\u00a0It feels too much like national suicide.<\/p>\n

But Iran could also attack in ways that maintain Iran\u2019s plausible deniability.\u00a0Iran could ask the Houthis to attack international shipping in the Red Sea, and Iran could deny that it had anything to do with the attacks.\u00a0Or a \u201clone wolf\u201d terrorist could bomb a shopping mall in the United States or a U.S. embassy overseas, and Iran could claim to be shocked \u2014 shocked! \u2014 to learn of the attack.<\/p>\n

So maybe \u2014 maybe \u2014 Iran can still retaliate and get away with it.<\/p>\n

But Iran is very likely to respond in another way.<\/p>\n

Iran almost surely moved some of its enriched uranium out of the locations that the U.S. bombed.\u00a0Given the number of times Trump threatened to bomb those locations, Iran would have been silly not to act.\u00a0And Iran did have trucks pull up to at least one of those locations before the bombing occurred.\u00a0Whether the U.S. \u201cobliterated\u201d the three locations or merely \u201cseverely damaged\u201d them, Iran still possesses both enriched uranium and the know-how needed to build a nuke.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

Will Iran now negotiate away its capacity to construct that weapon?<\/p>\n

Inconceivable.<\/p>\n

Iran knows (as I would know, if I were in Iran\u2019s shoes) that the United States can\u2019t be trusted.\u00a0Obama negotiated a nonbinding political commitment with Iran meant to keep the peace \u2014 the Iran nuclear deal.\u00a0In 2018, Trump withdrew the United States from that deal.\u00a0Trump was within his legal rights to withdraw from the agreement, but, if you were Iran, would you negotiate with the U.S. again in the future?<\/p>\n

Also, a\u00a0sixth round<\/a>\u00a0of negotiations between the U.S. and Iran was scheduled to take place on June 15 but was cancelled when Israel attacked Iran on June 13.\u00a0Moreover, on the afternoon of June 19, the White House press secretary read a message that she said came \u201cdirectly from the president<\/a>.\u201d\u00a0Trump said that he would make a decision about whether to strike Iran \u201cwithin the next two weeks.\u201d\u00a0Two days later, on June 21, the bombs were falling.<\/p>\n

Like the decision to withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal, these words may have been technically accurate.\u00a0But they were plainly intended to deceive Iran into thinking that attacks were not imminent.\u00a0If you were Iran, would you now trust anything the United States said about its intentions?<\/p>\n

I wouldn\u2019t, and I\u2019m on our side.<\/p>\n

So, if Iran is thinking \u2014 and it surely is \u2014 it will secretly develop a bomb. Iran can\u2019t trust the U.S.\u00a0As North Korea\u2019s experience shows, Iran will be essentially protected against an American attack once it possesses a bomb.\u00a0So Iran should start building. There\u2019s a chance that Iran wouldn\u2019t get caught secretly building the bomb.\u00a0And if Iran did get caught, would the consequences be any worse than Iran\u2019s current state?\u00a0The United States isn\u2019t going to put boots on the ground in Iran.\u00a0The worst consequence of being caught in deception is to suffer a few more bombs.\u00a0Iran might not even suffer that fate, because Trump is now insisting that he obliterated Iran\u2019s nuclear sites; it\u2019s one and done.\u00a0What would be Trump\u2019s excuse for bombing a second time after the first raid had been so successful?\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

What do you suppose Iran will do?<\/p>\n

From my own personal perspective, I hope that if Iran secretly builds a bomb, that project comes to fruition while Trump is still in office.\u00a0It\u2019s only right that Trump, and not his successor, should have to deal with the aftermath of the bombs that Trump ordered to be dropped.<\/p>\n

In any event, it\u2019s a little premature to be thinking of awarding Trump the Nobel Peace Prize.<\/p>\n

But on all other scores, I was right:\u00a0Trump is indeed a narcissist and a sociopath, a felon and a rapist, and all the rest.<\/p>\n

\n

Mark\u00a0Herrmann\u00a0spent 17 years as a partner at a leading international law firm and later oversaw litigation, compliance and employment matters at a large international company. He is the author of\u00a0<\/em><\/strong>The Curmudgeon\u2019s Guide to Practicing Law<\/em><\/strong><\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0<\/em><\/strong>Drug and Device Product Liability Litigation Strategy<\/em><\/strong><\/a>\u00a0(affiliate links). You can reach him by email at\u00a0<\/em><\/strong>inhouse@abovethelaw.com<\/em><\/strong><\/a>.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

The post Does Trump In Fact Deserve The Nobel Peace Prize?<\/a> appeared first on Above the Law<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\"\"
<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Last week, before the United States started bombing Iran,\u00a0I speculated<\/a> about whether we would actually drop bombs and, if so, what Iran\u2019s reaction would be.<\/p>\n

I must admit, I never even considered the possibility that Donald Trump\u2019s strategy might work:\u00a0Drop a bunch of bunker busters in a single bombing run; hope that Iran\u2019s response would be insignificant; proceed from there to a ceasefire and a peace deal.<\/p>\n

Ridiculous!<\/p>\n

My bad.<\/p>\n

At first glance, it appears as though Trump has pulled off a near-miracle.<\/p>\n

Hats off to him.<\/p>\n

Not just the Nobel Peace Prize.\u00a0Make the man a saint.<\/p>\n

Thomas Babington\u00a0Macaulay wrote<\/a>\u00a0of James Boswell (Samuel Johnson\u2019s biographer) that Boswell was:<\/p>\n

\n

Servile and impertinent, shallow and pedantic, a bigot and a sot, bloated with family pride, and eternally blustering about the dignity of a born gentleman, yet stooping to be a talebearer, an eavesdropper, a common butt in the taverns of London \u2026 .<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

And Macaulay was just getting warmed up.\u00a0But\u00a0Macaulay concluded<\/a>:<\/p>\n

\n

Homer is not more decidedly the first of heroic poets, Shakespeare is not more decidedly the first of dramatists, Demosthenes is not more decidedly the first of orators, than Boswell is the first of biographers. He has no second. He has distanced all his competitors so decidedly that it is not worth while to place them. Eclipse is first, and the rest nowhere.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

I was thinking the same about Trump:\u00a0He\u2019s a narcissist and a sociopath.\u00a0He\u2019s a felon and a rapist (as that word is commonly understood).\u00a0He\u2019s an insurrectionist and a fraud.\u00a0He\u2019s a liar and a blowhard.\u00a0And he\u2019s an asshole. But maybe the bastard really does deserve the Nobel Peace Prize.\u00a0He\u2019s eliminated the threat of a nuclear Iran, ended the war between Iran and Israel, and brought Iran back to the negotiating table.<\/p>\n

That annoyed me no end \u2014 he\u2019s such a jerk! \u2014 but I briefly believed it.<\/p>\n

Then I thought harder.<\/p>\n

Iran can still retaliate against the United States.\u00a0Iran could still counterattack against the U.S. in a way that reveals Iran\u2019s involvement in the counterattack \u2014 for example, firing missiles directly from Iran or launching cyberattacks easily traceable to the country.<\/p>\n

If I were Iran, I wouldn\u2019t do that.\u00a0It feels too much like national suicide.<\/p>\n

But Iran could also attack in ways that maintain Iran\u2019s plausible deniability.\u00a0Iran could ask the Houthis to attack international shipping in the Red Sea, and Iran could deny that it had anything to do with the attacks.\u00a0Or a \u201clone wolf\u201d terrorist could bomb a shopping mall in the United States or a U.S. embassy overseas, and Iran could claim to be shocked \u2014 shocked! \u2014 to learn of the attack.<\/p>\n

So maybe \u2014 maybe \u2014 Iran can still retaliate and get away with it.<\/p>\n

But Iran is very likely to respond in another way.<\/p>\n

Iran almost surely moved some of its enriched uranium out of the locations that the U.S. bombed.\u00a0Given the number of times Trump threatened to bomb those locations, Iran would have been silly not to act.\u00a0And Iran did have trucks pull up to at least one of those locations before the bombing occurred.\u00a0Whether the U.S. \u201cobliterated\u201d the three locations or merely \u201cseverely damaged\u201d them, Iran still possesses both enriched uranium and the know-how needed to build a nuke.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

Will Iran now negotiate away its capacity to construct that weapon?<\/p>\n

Inconceivable.<\/p>\n

Iran knows (as I would know, if I were in Iran\u2019s shoes) that the United States can\u2019t be trusted.\u00a0Obama negotiated a nonbinding political commitment with Iran meant to keep the peace \u2014 the Iran nuclear deal.\u00a0In 2018, Trump withdrew the United States from that deal.\u00a0Trump was within his legal rights to withdraw from the agreement, but, if you were Iran, would you negotiate with the U.S. again in the future?<\/p>\n

Also, a\u00a0sixth round<\/a>\u00a0of negotiations between the U.S. and Iran was scheduled to take place on June 15 but was cancelled when Israel attacked Iran on June 13.\u00a0Moreover, on the afternoon of June 19, the White House press secretary read a message that she said came \u201cdirectly from the president<\/a>.\u201d\u00a0Trump said that he would make a decision about whether to strike Iran \u201cwithin the next two weeks.\u201d\u00a0Two days later, on June 21, the bombs were falling.<\/p>\n

Like the decision to withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal, these words may have been technically accurate.\u00a0But they were plainly intended to deceive Iran into thinking that attacks were not imminent.\u00a0If you were Iran, would you now trust anything the United States said about its intentions?<\/p>\n

I wouldn\u2019t, and I\u2019m on our side.<\/p>\n

So, if Iran is thinking \u2014 and it surely is \u2014 it will secretly develop a bomb. Iran can\u2019t trust the U.S.\u00a0As North Korea\u2019s experience shows, Iran will be essentially protected against an American attack once it possesses a bomb.\u00a0So Iran should start building. There\u2019s a chance that Iran wouldn\u2019t get caught secretly building the bomb.\u00a0And if Iran did get caught, would the consequences be any worse than Iran\u2019s current state?\u00a0The United States isn\u2019t going to put boots on the ground in Iran.\u00a0The worst consequence of being caught in deception is to suffer a few more bombs.\u00a0Iran might not even suffer that fate, because Trump is now insisting that he obliterated Iran\u2019s nuclear sites; it\u2019s one and done.\u00a0What would be Trump\u2019s excuse for bombing a second time after the first raid had been so successful?\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

What do you suppose Iran will do?<\/p>\n

From my own personal perspective, I hope that if Iran secretly builds a bomb, that project comes to fruition while Trump is still in office.\u00a0It\u2019s only right that Trump, and not his successor, should have to deal with the aftermath of the bombs that Trump ordered to be dropped.<\/p>\n

In any event, it\u2019s a little premature to be thinking of awarding Trump the Nobel Peace Prize.<\/p>\n

But on all other scores, I was right:\u00a0Trump is indeed a narcissist and a sociopath, a felon and a rapist, and all the rest.<\/p>\n

\n

Mark\u00a0Herrmann\u00a0spent 17 years as a partner at a leading international law firm and later oversaw litigation, compliance and employment matters at a large international company. He is the author of\u00a0<\/em><\/strong>The Curmudgeon\u2019s Guide to Practicing Law<\/em><\/strong><\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0<\/em><\/strong>Drug and Device Product Liability Litigation Strategy<\/em><\/strong><\/a>\u00a0(affiliate links). You can reach him by email at\u00a0<\/em><\/strong>[email\u00a0protected]<\/em><\/strong><\/a>.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Last week, before the United States started bombing Iran,\u00a0I speculated about whether we would actually drop bombs and, if so, what Iran\u2019s reaction would be. I must admit, I never even considered the possibility that Donald Trump\u2019s strategy might work:\u00a0Drop a bunch of bunker busters in a single bombing run; hope that Iran\u2019s response would […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":124904,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[16],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-124922","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-above_the_law"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/xira.com\/p\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Nobel_Prize-9TML4k.png?fit=500%2C492&ssl=1","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/xira.com\/p\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/124922","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/xira.com\/p\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/xira.com\/p\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/xira.com\/p\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/xira.com\/p\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=124922"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/xira.com\/p\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/124922\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/xira.com\/p\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/124904"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/xira.com\/p\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=124922"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/xira.com\/p\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=124922"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/xira.com\/p\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=124922"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}