{"id":131973,"date":"2025-08-25T12:03:41","date_gmt":"2025-08-25T20:03:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/xira.com\/p\/2025\/08\/25\/what-if-inflation-is-the-big-issue-in-2026\/"},"modified":"2025-08-25T12:03:41","modified_gmt":"2025-08-25T20:03:41","slug":"what-if-inflation-is-the-big-issue-in-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/xira.com\/p\/2025\/08\/25\/what-if-inflation-is-the-big-issue-in-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"What If Inflation Is The Big Issue In 2026?"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"\"<\/figure>\n

Is it possible that inflation will be the big issue in 2026?<\/p>\n

Inflation was certainly a big issue in 2024, and it played against the Democrats.\u00a0Might inflation now play against the Republicans?<\/p>\n

I\u2019m thinking primarily of the price of essentials:\u00a0food and electricity.\u00a0I suspect that the price of food will go up noticeably between now and the middle of next year.\u00a0The Trump administration is deporting people left and right.\u00a0Many of those people are farmworkers.\u00a0If you get rid of a lot of farmworkers, one of two things happens:\u00a0Either vegetables rot in the fields or farmers pay more to attract employees to harvest the crop.<\/p>\n

If vegetables are unnecessarily rotting, prices are going up.\u00a0If farmers are paying more to harvest the crop, prices are going up.<\/p>\n

Inflation.<\/p>\n

At the same time, Trump is imposing massive tariffs on food that we import from other countries.\u00a0Trump is, for example, charging about a\u00a017% tariff<\/a>\u00a0on Mexican tomatoes.\u00a0He\u2019s imposing a\u00a050% tariff<\/a>\u00a0on beef from Brazil.\u00a0He\u2019s even imposed a 15% tariff on French wines, although, in less trying times, wine is not quite as essential as tomatoes and beef.<\/p>\n

These tariffs are foolish \u2014 we\u2019re not protecting essential American industries by raising the price of food \u2014 but that\u2019s not my point.\u00a0The combination of deporting the farm workforce and imposing tariffs on imported food is basically guaranteed to inflate grocery prices over the coming six months.<\/p>\n

Couple that with a likely increase in electricity prices.\u00a0Demand for energy is skyrocketing.\u00a0Training artificial intelligence models requires running thousands of processors to perform complex computations for weeks or months.\u00a0This massive demand for electricity is already straining the grid, and the boom in artificial intelligence is just starting.\u00a0The Trump administration is simultaneously doing everything possible to strangle new sources of energy.\u00a0Trump has suspended issuing permits for wind and solar projects on public land.\u00a0He\u2019s eliminated investment tax credits that previously supported alternative energy sources.\u00a0And the Interior Department now engages in burdensome, multilevel reviews of new alternative energy projects, delaying the approval process.<\/p>\n

You can \u201cdrill, baby, drill\u201d as much as you like, but it\u2019s hard to replace the renewable energy sources that have accounted for much of the recent growth in electric-generating capacity.<\/p>\n

If I\u2019m right, and the cost of both food and electricity is about to increase, won\u2019t this become a political issue?\u00a0And shouldn\u2019t Democrats be delighted?<\/p>\n

After all, Trump made the price of eggs a huge issue in the 2024 campaign, proposed no policies that might actually reduce those prices, and won office.\u00a0Democrats could note the increased cost of essentials and actually propose policies that would change things \u2014 eliminate tariffs on food (at least), restore sanity to the deportation process, and revive government support for renewable energy.<\/p>\n

That is, quite literally, a kitchen-table issue. It should play with all but the very rich, who are basically immune to price increases. Perfect!<\/p>\n

But Democrats must then avoid alienating swing voters who probably disagree with the far left on social issues. Don\u2019t insist, as Democrats did during the primaries in 2020, that America should essentially have open borders. Instead, agree with Republicans that a country must control its borders and criticize only the way in which Trump has gone about deporting innocent multitudes without due process. Don\u2019t insist that boys who have passed puberty should be allowed to transition and then compete in girls\u2019 sports. Instead, explain that we should not discriminate against anyone but, for reasons of fairness, we simply cannot permit biological males to compete against biological females. In this situation, we must discriminate against either women or trans women, depending on what we decide. On this one issue, trans women lose. Don\u2019t insist, as Democrats did in 2020, that we should defund the police. People don\u2019t like crime; talk about ways to improve, rather than starve, law enforcement.<\/p>\n

If economics holds true, food (and energy) prices should be shooting up like a cornstalk next summer. Democrats should focus on that nonpartisan pocketbook issue in an effort to win back the House of Representatives.<\/p>\n

\n

Mark\u00a0Herrmann\u00a0spent 17 years as a partner at a leading international law firm and later oversaw litigation, compliance and employment matters at a large international company. He is the author of\u00a0<\/em><\/strong>The Curmudgeon\u2019s Guide to Practicing Law<\/em><\/strong><\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0<\/em><\/strong>Drug and Device Product Liability Litigation Strategy<\/em><\/strong><\/a>\u00a0(affiliate links). You can reach him by email at\u00a0<\/em><\/strong>inhouse@abovethelaw.com<\/em><\/strong><\/a>.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

The post What If Inflation Is The Big Issue In 2026?<\/a> appeared first on Above the Law<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n

Is it possible that inflation will be the big issue in 2026?<\/p>\n

Inflation was certainly a big issue in 2024, and it played against the Democrats.\u00a0Might inflation now play against the Republicans?<\/p>\n

I\u2019m thinking primarily of the price of essentials:\u00a0food and electricity.\u00a0I suspect that the price of food will go up noticeably between now and the middle of next year.\u00a0The Trump administration is deporting people left and right.\u00a0Many of those people are farmworkers.\u00a0If you get rid of a lot of farmworkers, one of two things happens:\u00a0Either vegetables rot in the fields or farmers pay more to attract employees to harvest the crop.<\/p>\n

If vegetables are unnecessarily rotting, prices are going up.\u00a0If farmers are paying more to harvest the crop, prices are going up.<\/p>\n

Inflation.<\/p>\n

At the same time, Trump is imposing massive tariffs on food that we import from other countries.\u00a0Trump is, for example, charging about a\u00a017% tariff<\/a>\u00a0on Mexican tomatoes.\u00a0He\u2019s imposing a\u00a050% tariff<\/a>\u00a0on beef from Brazil.\u00a0He\u2019s even imposed a 15% tariff on French wines, although, in less trying times, wine is not quite as essential as tomatoes and beef.<\/p>\n

These tariffs are foolish \u2014 we\u2019re not protecting essential American industries by raising the price of food \u2014 but that\u2019s not my point.\u00a0The combination of deporting the farm workforce and imposing tariffs on imported food is basically guaranteed to inflate grocery prices over the coming six months.<\/p>\n

Couple that with a likely increase in electricity prices.\u00a0Demand for energy is skyrocketing.\u00a0Training artificial intelligence models requires running thousands of processors to perform complex computations for weeks or months.\u00a0This massive demand for electricity is already straining the grid, and the boom in artificial intelligence is just starting.\u00a0The Trump administration is simultaneously doing everything possible to strangle new sources of energy.\u00a0Trump has suspended issuing permits for wind and solar projects on public land.\u00a0He\u2019s eliminated investment tax credits that previously supported alternative energy sources.\u00a0And the Interior Department now engages in burdensome, multilevel reviews of new alternative energy projects, delaying the approval process.<\/p>\n

You can \u201cdrill, baby, drill\u201d as much as you like, but it\u2019s hard to replace the renewable energy sources that have accounted for much of the recent growth in electric-generating capacity.<\/p>\n

If I\u2019m right, and the cost of both food and electricity is about to increase, won\u2019t this become a political issue?\u00a0And shouldn\u2019t Democrats be delighted?<\/p>\n

After all, Trump made the price of eggs a huge issue in the 2024 campaign, proposed no policies that might actually reduce those prices, and won office.\u00a0Democrats could note the increased cost of essentials and actually propose policies that would change things \u2014 eliminate tariffs on food (at least), restore sanity to the deportation process, and revive government support for renewable energy.<\/p>\n

That is, quite literally, a kitchen-table issue. It should play with all but the very rich, who are basically immune to price increases. Perfect!<\/p>\n

But Democrats must then avoid alienating swing voters who probably disagree with the far left on social issues. Don\u2019t insist, as Democrats did during the primaries in 2020, that America should essentially have open borders. Instead, agree with Republicans that a country must control its borders and criticize only the way in which Trump has gone about deporting innocent multitudes without due process. Don\u2019t insist that boys who have passed puberty should be allowed to transition and then compete in girls\u2019 sports. Instead, explain that we should not discriminate against anyone but, for reasons of fairness, we simply cannot permit biological males to compete against biological females. In this situation, we must discriminate against either women or trans women, depending on what we decide. On this one issue, trans women lose. Don\u2019t insist, as Democrats did in 2020, that we should defund the police. People don\u2019t like crime; talk about ways to improve, rather than starve, law enforcement.<\/p>\n

If economics holds true, food (and energy) prices should be shooting up like a cornstalk next summer. Democrats should focus on that nonpartisan pocketbook issue in an effort to win back the House of Representatives.<\/p>\n

\n

Mark\u00a0Herrmann\u00a0spent 17 years as a partner at a leading international law firm and later oversaw litigation, compliance and employment matters at a large international company. He is the author of\u00a0<\/em><\/strong>The Curmudgeon\u2019s Guide to Practicing Law<\/em><\/strong><\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0<\/em><\/strong>Drug and Device Product Liability Litigation Strategy<\/em><\/strong><\/a>\u00a0(affiliate links). You can reach him by email at\u00a0<\/em><\/strong>inhouse@abovethelaw.com<\/em><\/strong><\/a>.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

The post What If Inflation Is The Big Issue In 2026?<\/a> appeared first on Above the Law<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Is it possible that inflation will be the big issue in 2026? Inflation was certainly a big issue in 2024, and it played against the Democrats.\u00a0Might inflation now play against the Republicans? I\u2019m thinking primarily of the price of essentials:\u00a0food and electricity.\u00a0I suspect that the price of food will go up noticeably between now and […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":131955,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[16],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-131973","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-above_the_law"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/xira.com\/p\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/GettyImages-1360200099-scaled-Svobg5.jpg?fit=2560%2C1689&ssl=1","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/xira.com\/p\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/131973","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/xira.com\/p\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/xira.com\/p\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/xira.com\/p\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/xira.com\/p\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=131973"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/xira.com\/p\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/131973\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/xira.com\/p\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/131955"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/xira.com\/p\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=131973"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/xira.com\/p\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=131973"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/xira.com\/p\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=131973"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}