{"id":140940,"date":"2026-01-05T17:11:03","date_gmt":"2026-01-06T01:11:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/xira.com\/p\/2026\/01\/05\/a-tariff-prediction-for-2026\/"},"modified":"2026-01-05T17:11:03","modified_gmt":"2026-01-06T01:11:03","slug":"a-tariff-prediction-for-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/xira.com\/p\/2026\/01\/05\/a-tariff-prediction-for-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"A Tariff Prediction For 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"\"
<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

This is the time of year to make predictions.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

Who am I to buck a trend? I have one very specific (and extended) prediction.<\/p>\n

My prediction begins with the Supreme Court seeing an opportunity in the pending litigation involving President Donald Trump\u2019s tariffs.<\/p>\n

Trump\u2019s \u201cliberation day\u201d tariffs are probably unlawful.\u00a0If the Supreme Court were to strike down the tariffs, that decision would have the benefit of following the law.\u00a0That\u2019s good, for starters.<\/p>\n

But a decision striking down the tariffs would do much more than follow the law.\u00a0Invalidating the tariffs would also allow the Supreme Court to show that it\u2019s independent, occasionally willing to defy Trump.\u00a0That would help the court.\u00a0Invalidating the tariffs also doesn\u2019t hurt Trump too much because Trump has fallback mechanisms for reimposing similar tariffs under other laws if he\u2019s dead-set on maintaining tariffs. Also, because Trump can reimpose tariffs, he\u2019s unlikely to ignore the court\u2019s order, creating a constitutional crisis. Instead, he\u2019ll use a different route to reimpose the tariffs.\u00a0Finally, striking down the tariffs would probably benefit Trump politically:\u00a0The tariffs have increased certain prices in the United States and decreased employment (by creating uncertainty, which reduces business investment).\u00a0By striking down the tariffs, the Supreme Court would probably be helping the economy.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s not really the way the Supreme Court thinks. The court actually does more law and less politics than I do, but you see what I\u2019m driving at. The Supreme Court will strike down Trump\u2019s tariffs, which might well improve the economy and strengthen the Republicans\u2019 hand in the midterm elections in November.<\/p>\n

The court would be doing Trump a favor.<\/p>\n

The next question is whether Trump would accept the gift.<\/p>\n

I think not.<\/p>\n

Trump has loved tariffs his entire life.\u00a0He\u2019s called \u201ctariffs\u201d his\u00a0favorite word<\/a>\u00a0(although in the 1980s he wanted to impose tariffs on Japan, rather than China).\u00a0Trump\u2019s an old, stubborn guy; I suspect he won\u2019t change his thinking now.<\/p>\n

Trump also does not like to admit defeat, as the events of January 6, among other things, have demonstrated.\u00a0If the Supreme Court strikes down Trump\u2019s tariffs, he\u2019ll choose another route to reimpose them.\u00a0To do otherwise would be to admit that the Supreme Court thwarted him, and Trump could never stomach that.<\/p>\n

Trump also like tariffs for personal reasons.\u00a0Tariffs give Trump the power to rule the world.\u00a0Brazil is prosecuting Jair Bolsonaro?\u00a0Impose tariffs!\u00a0India\u2019s buying Russian oil?\u00a0Impose tariffs!\u00a0Mexico and Canada aren\u2019t doing enough to stop the flow of fentanyl into the United States?\u00a0Impose tariffs!<\/p>\n

Unilateral discretion to impose tariffs lets Trump reward friends and punish enemies internationally, a vast expansion of his personal power.\u00a0I\u2019m sure he likes that.<\/p>\n

Tariffs also make domestic companies come to heel.\u00a0Trump can authorize exemptions from tariffs on an individual basis.\u00a0Apple doesn\u2019t want tariffs to apply to its iPhones?\u00a0Voila!<\/a>\u00a0Apple just has to cooperate with Trump, and iPhone components are exempted from tariffs.\u00a0 Trump loves the idea of using government policy (tariffs) as a racket for extorting money from U.S. companies.\u00a0He won\u2019t sacrifice that power lightly.<\/p>\n

So Trump will use alternate routes to reimpose many of the tariffs that the Supreme Court strikes down.<\/p>\n

What\u2019s the last piece of my prediction?<\/p>\n

Reimposing tariffs will continue to hurt the economy, raising prices and decreasing business investment.\u00a0Voters will notice a stumbling economy.\u00a0And the Republicans will lose their majority in the House of Representatives this November in part because Trump will look a gift horse in the mouth.\u00a0Instead of accepting defeat on the tariff issue and winning the midterms, he\u2019ll insist on a tariff victory and thus suffer an electoral defeat.<\/p>\n

Trump will win the tariff war, but lose the House of Representatives.\u00a0A stable genius indeed.<\/p>\n

Happy New Year!<\/p>\n

\n

Mark\u00a0Herrmann\u00a0spent 17 years as a partner at a leading international law firm and later oversaw litigation, compliance and employment matters at a large international company. He is the author of\u00a0The Curmudgeon\u2019s Guide to Practicing Law<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0Drug and Device Product Liability Litigation Strategy<\/a>\u00a0(affiliate links). You can reach him by email at\u00a0inhouse@abovethelaw.com<\/a>.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

The post A Tariff Prediction For 2026<\/a> appeared first on Above the Law<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\"\"
<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

This is the time of year to make predictions.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

Who am I to buck a trend? I have one very specific (and extended) prediction.<\/p>\n

My prediction begins with the Supreme Court seeing an opportunity in the pending litigation involving President Donald Trump\u2019s tariffs.<\/p>\n

Trump\u2019s \u201cliberation day\u201d tariffs are probably unlawful.\u00a0If the Supreme Court were to strike down the tariffs, that decision would have the benefit of following the law.\u00a0That\u2019s good, for starters.<\/p>\n

But a decision striking down the tariffs would do much more than follow the law.\u00a0Invalidating the tariffs would also allow the Supreme Court to show that it\u2019s independent, occasionally willing to defy Trump.\u00a0That would help the court.\u00a0Invalidating the tariffs also doesn\u2019t hurt Trump too much because Trump has fallback mechanisms for reimposing similar tariffs under other laws if he\u2019s dead-set on maintaining tariffs. Also, because Trump can reimpose tariffs, he\u2019s unlikely to ignore the court\u2019s order, creating a constitutional crisis. Instead, he\u2019ll use a different route to reimpose the tariffs.\u00a0Finally, striking down the tariffs would probably benefit Trump politically:\u00a0The tariffs have increased certain prices in the United States and decreased employment (by creating uncertainty, which reduces business investment).\u00a0By striking down the tariffs, the Supreme Court would probably be helping the economy.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s not really the way the Supreme Court thinks. The court actually does more law and less politics than I do, but you see what I\u2019m driving at. The Supreme Court will strike down Trump\u2019s tariffs, which might well improve the economy and strengthen the Republicans\u2019 hand in the midterm elections in November.<\/p>\n

The court would be doing Trump a favor.<\/p>\n

The next question is whether Trump would accept the gift.<\/p>\n

I think not.<\/p>\n

Trump has loved tariffs his entire life.\u00a0He\u2019s called \u201ctariffs\u201d his\u00a0favorite word<\/a>\u00a0(although in the 1980s he wanted to impose tariffs on Japan, rather than China).\u00a0Trump\u2019s an old, stubborn guy; I suspect he won\u2019t change his thinking now.<\/p>\n

Trump also does not like to admit defeat, as the events of January 6, among other things, have demonstrated.\u00a0If the Supreme Court strikes down Trump\u2019s tariffs, he\u2019ll choose another route to reimpose them.\u00a0To do otherwise would be to admit that the Supreme Court thwarted him, and Trump could never stomach that.<\/p>\n

Trump also like tariffs for personal reasons.\u00a0Tariffs give Trump the power to rule the world.\u00a0Brazil is prosecuting Jair Bolsonaro?\u00a0Impose tariffs!\u00a0India\u2019s buying Russian oil?\u00a0Impose tariffs!\u00a0Mexico and Canada aren\u2019t doing enough to stop the flow of fentanyl into the United States?\u00a0Impose tariffs!<\/p>\n

Unilateral discretion to impose tariffs lets Trump reward friends and punish enemies internationally, a vast expansion of his personal power.\u00a0I\u2019m sure he likes that.<\/p>\n

Tariffs also make domestic companies come to heel.\u00a0Trump can authorize exemptions from tariffs on an individual basis.\u00a0Apple doesn\u2019t want tariffs to apply to its iPhones?\u00a0Voila!<\/a>\u00a0Apple just has to cooperate with Trump, and iPhone components are exempted from tariffs.\u00a0 Trump loves the idea of using government policy (tariffs) as a racket for extorting money from U.S. companies.\u00a0He won\u2019t sacrifice that power lightly.<\/p>\n

So Trump will use alternate routes to reimpose many of the tariffs that the Supreme Court strikes down.<\/p>\n

What\u2019s the last piece of my prediction?<\/p>\n

Reimposing tariffs will continue to hurt the economy, raising prices and decreasing business investment.\u00a0Voters will notice a stumbling economy.\u00a0And the Republicans will lose their majority in the House of Representatives this November in part because Trump will look a gift horse in the mouth.\u00a0Instead of accepting defeat on the tariff issue and winning the midterms, he\u2019ll insist on a tariff victory and thus suffer an electoral defeat.<\/p>\n

Trump will win the tariff war, but lose the House of Representatives.\u00a0A stable genius indeed.<\/p>\n

Happy New Year!<\/p>\n

\n

Mark\u00a0Herrmann\u00a0spent 17 years as a partner at a leading international law firm and later oversaw litigation, compliance and employment matters at a large international company. He is the author of\u00a0The Curmudgeon\u2019s Guide to Practicing Law<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0Drug and Device Product Liability Litigation Strategy<\/a>\u00a0(affiliate links). You can reach him by email at\u00a0inhouse@abovethelaw.com<\/a>.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

The post A Tariff Prediction For 2026<\/a> appeared first on Above the Law<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

This is the time of year to make predictions.\u00a0\u00a0 Who am I to buck a trend? I have one very specific (and extended) prediction. My prediction begins with the Supreme Court seeing an opportunity in the pending litigation involving President Donald Trump\u2019s tariffs. Trump\u2019s \u201cliberation day\u201d tariffs are probably unlawful.\u00a0If the Supreme Court were to […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":140941,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[16],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-140940","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-above_the_law"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/xira.com\/p\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/GettyImages-874639574-scaled-itkWnh.jpg?fit=2560%2C2560&ssl=1","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/xira.com\/p\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/140940","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/xira.com\/p\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/xira.com\/p\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/xira.com\/p\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/xira.com\/p\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=140940"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/xira.com\/p\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/140940\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/xira.com\/p\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/140941"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/xira.com\/p\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=140940"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/xira.com\/p\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=140940"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/xira.com\/p\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=140940"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}