{"id":145711,"date":"2026-03-10T09:15:02","date_gmt":"2026-03-10T17:15:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/xira.com\/p\/2026\/03\/10\/you-know-exactly-how-the-war-in-iran-will-end\/"},"modified":"2026-03-10T09:15:02","modified_gmt":"2026-03-10T17:15:02","slug":"you-know-exactly-how-the-war-in-iran-will-end","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/xira.com\/p\/2026\/03\/10\/you-know-exactly-how-the-war-in-iran-will-end\/","title":{"rendered":"You Know Exactly How The War In Iran Will End"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"\"
(Photo by Win McNamee\/Getty Images)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Everyone says that we don\u2019t know how the war in Iran will end.<\/p>\n

Nonsense.\u00a0We know exactly how the war will end.\u00a0We even know when it will end.<\/p>\n

But let\u2019s start at the beginning.\u00a0As the war begins, reporters foolishly ask three questions.<\/p>\n

First, they ask a supposedly hard question for Democrats:\u00a0\u201cDo you feel safer now than you did a week ago, when Ali Khamenei was ruling Iran?\u201d<\/p>\n

It\u2019s not so hard:\u00a0Of course we feel safer now.\u00a0The U.S. got rid of an evil man.<\/p>\n

Second:\u00a0\u201cSo that means you\u2019re happy with how the war is going so far?\u201d<\/p>\n

Again, not so hard:\u00a0Of course we\u2019re happy with how the war is going so far.\u00a0Generally, when the United States enters a war of choice with another country, things go swimmingly for the first few days.\u00a0How were you feeling about the war in Afghanistan for the first week or two, when B-52\u2019s were bombing the hell out of the Taliban and the Northern Alliance had them on the run?\u00a0How were you feeling about the war in Iraq for the first week or two, when American troops were on a fast track to Baghdad and the Iraqis were putting up essentially no resistance?<\/p>\n

We always feel great for the first week or two.\u00a0Ask again next year.\u00a0Or next decade.<\/p>\n

Finally, a supposedly tough question for Republicans:\u00a0\u201cWill the United States deploy ground troops in Iran?\u201d<\/p>\n

The only answer that a senior official can give to this question publicly is:\u00a0\u201cI haven\u2019t ruled out the use of ground troops.\u201d\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

This is common sense.\u00a0You never tell the enemy the limits of your strategy. You never rule out any possible escalation.\u00a0You absolutely must be noncommittal when asked about ground troops, even knowing that tomorrow\u2019s headline will be, \u201cTrump [or Hegseth, or whomever] Declines to Rule Out Use of Ground Troops!\u201d<\/p>\n

At the same time, everyone in the United States knows to a moral certainty that the U.S. will never deploy ground troops in Iran.\u00a0Trump promised no \u201cforever wars\u201d; the American public opposes deploying ground troops; the Republican party knows (as does Trump himself) that deploying ground troops would hand the midterm elections to the Democrats.<\/p>\n

So:\u00a0(1)\u00a0Trump and Hegseth won\u2019t rule out the possibility of deploying ground troops and (2)\u00a0No ground troops will be ever deployed.<\/p>\n

Finally, you know exactly how this war will end.<\/p>\n

Pundits are saying that, \u201cNo one knows how the war in Iran will end.\u201d<\/p>\n

Silly pundits.<\/p>\n

No one knows how the war in Iran will end\u00a0on the Iranian side<\/em>.<\/p>\n

Everyone knows how the war in Iran will end\u00a0on the American side<\/em>.<\/p>\n

The war in Iran will be over from the American side no later than June 1.<\/p>\n

Period.<\/p>\n

From the American side, the war might end tomorrow, or next week, or in May, but I guarantee that it will be over by June 1.\u00a0If the war were to continue into June, then it would begin to influence the midterm elections.\u00a0The Republicans (and Trump) will not run that risk.\u00a0The war will be over (for our side) no later than May 31.<\/p>\n

Also, Donald Trump will declare victory on the day the war ends.\u00a0Trump never loses anything.\u00a0(See, for example, the 2020 election.)\u00a0Nothing involving Trump ever plays to a draw.\u00a0Trump always wins.\u00a0<\/p>\n

So Trump will say that he won the war in Iran.<\/p>\n

If a hardline regime remains in power in Iran, then Trump will say that he killed Khamenei.\u00a0That was his goal all along.\u00a0The regime \u2014 that is, Khamenei personally \u2014 was eliminated.\u00a0Mission accomplished.\u00a0We won the war.<\/p>\n

If the war has accomplished a little more than that, so much the better.\u00a0We put in place people slightly less radical than Khamenei, or whatever.<\/p>\n

Trump won.<\/p>\n

The one thing that will not have been happened by June 1 is for us to have any idea about how the war in Iran will end from Iran\u2019s perspective.<\/p>\n

How could we possibly know?\u00a0What did Afghanistan\u2019s future look like three months after the United States attacked?<\/p>\n

What did Iraq\u2019s future look like three months after the American invasion?<\/p>\n

What did Libya\u2019s future look like three months after Gaddafi fell?<\/p>\n

Three months into this war, the lingering elements of this regime may be holding power.\u00a0The elements of some other regime may be trying to establish power.\u00a0Iran may have broken out into civil war.\u00a0Kurdish troops may be running wild in the streets of Tehran.\u00a0The country may have collapsed into sectarian violence.\u00a0It may be obvious that Iran has become a failed state (with stockpiles of enriched uranium lying around unprotected).<\/p>\n

We don\u2019t know how this war will end from Iran\u2019s perspective.<\/p>\n

But we certainly know how it will end from our perspective:\u00a0The U.S. government will announce that major military operations have ended.\u00a0Trump will declare victory.\u00a0Sean Hannity (and the rest of the MAGA lickspittles) will explain that Trump was a genius, and that we live in the best of all possible worlds.\u00a0(Why wait, Sean?\u00a0Just make that announcement now, and save time.)<\/p>\n

Many on the left will of course insist on the opposite:\u00a0Iran was never an immediate threat to us.\u00a0Too many lives were lost.\u00a0Too little was achieved at too great a cost.<\/p>\n

But please don\u2019t tell me that there\u2019s some question about how this war will end.<\/p>\n

From our perspective, you know not only how, but even when, the war will be over.<\/p>\n

Before summer arrives, we\u2019ll be able to make the announcement:<\/p>\n

Congratulations, America!<\/p>\n

You won!<\/p>\n

\n

Mark\u00a0Herrmann\u00a0spent 17 years as a partner at a leading international law firm and later oversaw litigation, compliance and employment matters at a large international company. He is the author of\u00a0<\/em><\/strong>The Curmudgeon\u2019s Guide to Practicing Law<\/em><\/strong><\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0<\/em><\/strong>Drug and Device Product Liability Litigation Strategy<\/em><\/strong><\/a>\u00a0(affiliate links). You can reach him by email at\u00a0<\/em><\/strong>inhouse@abovethelaw.com<\/em><\/strong><\/a>.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

The post You Know Exactly How The War In Iran Will End<\/a> appeared first on Above the Law<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\"\"
(Photo by Win McNamee\/Getty Images)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Everyone says that we don\u2019t know how the war in Iran will end.<\/p>\n

Nonsense.\u00a0We know exactly how the war will end.\u00a0We even know when it will end.<\/p>\n

But let\u2019s start at the beginning.\u00a0As the war begins, reporters foolishly ask three questions.<\/p>\n

First, they ask a supposedly hard question for Democrats:\u00a0\u201cDo you feel safer now than you did a week ago, when Ali Khamenei was ruling Iran?\u201d<\/p>\n

It\u2019s not so hard:\u00a0Of course we feel safer now.\u00a0The U.S. got rid of an evil man.<\/p>\n

Second:\u00a0\u201cSo that means you\u2019re happy with how the war is going so far?\u201d<\/p>\n

Again, not so hard:\u00a0Of course we\u2019re happy with how the war is going so far.\u00a0Generally, when the United States enters a war of choice with another country, things go swimmingly for the first few days.\u00a0How were you feeling about the war in Afghanistan for the first week or two, when B-52\u2019s were bombing the hell out of the Taliban and the Northern Alliance had them on the run?\u00a0How were you feeling about the war in Iraq for the first week or two, when American troops were on a fast track to Baghdad and the Iraqis were putting up essentially no resistance?<\/p>\n

We always feel great for the first week or two.\u00a0Ask again next year.\u00a0Or next decade.<\/p>\n

Finally, a supposedly tough question for Republicans:\u00a0\u201cWill the United States deploy ground troops in Iran?\u201d<\/p>\n

The only answer that a senior official can give to this question publicly is:\u00a0\u201cI haven\u2019t ruled out the use of ground troops.\u201d\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

This is common sense.\u00a0You never tell the enemy the limits of your strategy. You never rule out any possible escalation.\u00a0You absolutely must be noncommittal when asked about ground troops, even knowing that tomorrow\u2019s headline will be, \u201cTrump [or Hegseth, or whomever] Declines to Rule Out Use of Ground Troops!\u201d<\/p>\n

At the same time, everyone in the United States knows to a moral certainty that the U.S. will never deploy ground troops in Iran.\u00a0Trump promised no \u201cforever wars\u201d; the American public opposes deploying ground troops; the Republican party knows (as does Trump himself) that deploying ground troops would hand the midterm elections to the Democrats.<\/p>\n

So:\u00a0(1)\u00a0Trump and Hegseth won\u2019t rule out the possibility of deploying ground troops and (2)\u00a0No ground troops will be ever deployed.<\/p>\n

Finally, you know exactly how this war will end.<\/p>\n

Pundits are saying that, \u201cNo one knows how the war in Iran will end.\u201d<\/p>\n

Silly pundits.<\/p>\n

No one knows how the war in Iran will end\u00a0on the Iranian side<\/em>.<\/p>\n

Everyone knows how the war in Iran will end\u00a0on the American side<\/em>.<\/p>\n

The war in Iran will be over from the American side no later than June 1.<\/p>\n

Period.<\/p>\n

From the American side, the war might end tomorrow, or next week, or in May, but I guarantee that it will be over by June 1.\u00a0If the war were to continue into June, then it would begin to influence the midterm elections.\u00a0The Republicans (and Trump) will not run that risk.\u00a0The war will be over (for our side) no later than May 31.<\/p>\n

Also, Donald Trump will declare victory on the day the war ends.\u00a0Trump never loses anything.\u00a0(See, for example, the 2020 election.)\u00a0Nothing involving Trump ever plays to a draw.\u00a0Trump always wins.\u00a0<\/p>\n

So Trump will say that he won the war in Iran.<\/p>\n

If a hardline regime remains in power in Iran, then Trump will say that he killed Khamenei.\u00a0That was his goal all along.\u00a0The regime \u2014 that is, Khamenei personally \u2014 was eliminated.\u00a0Mission accomplished.\u00a0We won the war.<\/p>\n

If the war has accomplished a little more than that, so much the better.\u00a0We put in place people slightly less radical than Khamenei, or whatever.<\/p>\n

Trump won.<\/p>\n

The one thing that will not have been happened by June 1 is for us to have any idea about how the war in Iran will end from Iran\u2019s perspective.<\/p>\n

How could we possibly know?\u00a0What did Afghanistan\u2019s future look like three months after the United States attacked?<\/p>\n

What did Iraq\u2019s future look like three months after the American invasion?<\/p>\n

What did Libya\u2019s future look like three months after Gaddafi fell?<\/p>\n

Three months into this war, the lingering elements of this regime may be holding power.\u00a0The elements of some other regime may be trying to establish power.\u00a0Iran may have broken out into civil war.\u00a0Kurdish troops may be running wild in the streets of Tehran.\u00a0The country may have collapsed into sectarian violence.\u00a0It may be obvious that Iran has become a failed state (with stockpiles of enriched uranium lying around unprotected).<\/p>\n

We don\u2019t know how this war will end from Iran\u2019s perspective.<\/p>\n

But we certainly know how it will end from our perspective:\u00a0The U.S. government will announce that major military operations have ended.\u00a0Trump will declare victory.\u00a0Sean Hannity (and the rest of the MAGA lickspittles) will explain that Trump was a genius, and that we live in the best of all possible worlds.\u00a0(Why wait, Sean?\u00a0Just make that announcement now, and save time.)<\/p>\n

Many on the left will of course insist on the opposite:\u00a0Iran was never an immediate threat to us.\u00a0Too many lives were lost.\u00a0Too little was achieved at too great a cost.<\/p>\n

But please don\u2019t tell me that there\u2019s some question about how this war will end.<\/p>\n

From our perspective, you know not only how, but even when, the war will be over.<\/p>\n

Before summer arrives, we\u2019ll be able to make the announcement:<\/p>\n

Congratulations, America!<\/p>\n

You won!<\/p>\n

\n

Mark\u00a0Herrmann\u00a0spent 17 years as a partner at a leading international law firm and later oversaw litigation, compliance and employment matters at a large international company. He is the author of\u00a0<\/em><\/strong>The Curmudgeon\u2019s Guide to Practicing Law<\/em><\/strong><\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0<\/em><\/strong>Drug and Device Product Liability Litigation Strategy<\/em><\/strong><\/a>\u00a0(affiliate links). You can reach him by email at\u00a0<\/em><\/strong>inhouse@abovethelaw.com<\/em><\/strong><\/a>.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

The post You Know Exactly How The War In Iran Will End<\/a> appeared first on Above the Law<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

(Photo by Win McNamee\/Getty Images) Everyone says that we don\u2019t know how the war in Iran will end. Nonsense.\u00a0We know exactly how the war will end.\u00a0We even know when it will end. But let\u2019s start at the beginning.\u00a0As the war begins, reporters foolishly ask three questions. First, they ask a supposedly hard question for Democrats:\u00a0\u201cDo […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":145674,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[16],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-145711","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-above_the_law"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/xira.com\/p\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/donald-trump-GettyImages-1152627372-8NNGiT.jpg?fit=1024%2C683&ssl=1","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/xira.com\/p\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/145711","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/xira.com\/p\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/xira.com\/p\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/xira.com\/p\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/xira.com\/p\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=145711"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/xira.com\/p\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/145711\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/xira.com\/p\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/145674"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/xira.com\/p\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=145711"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/xira.com\/p\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=145711"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/xira.com\/p\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=145711"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}