{"id":146174,"date":"2026-03-16T15:44:35","date_gmt":"2026-03-16T23:44:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/xira.com\/p\/2026\/03\/16\/2-problems-with-calling-off-the-war-in-iran\/"},"modified":"2026-03-16T15:44:35","modified_gmt":"2026-03-16T23:44:35","slug":"2-problems-with-calling-off-the-war-in-iran","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/xira.com\/p\/2026\/03\/16\/2-problems-with-calling-off-the-war-in-iran\/","title":{"rendered":"2 Problems With Calling Off The War In Iran"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"\"
(Photo by Win McNamee\/Getty Images)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

I suggested\u00a0last week<\/a>\u00a0that, between now and the beginning of summer, President Donald Trump will declare victory in Iran, end most of the military operations, and move on to his next manufactured crisis.\u00a0Trump could thus claim another victory and not worry about that nasty little war handing Democrats the midterms.\u00a0(Other things might yet hand the Democrats the midterms, but not the war.)<\/p>\n

We thus know in advance that the war will end in victory for us, and we know when it will end, and who cares about Iran, anyway?<\/p>\n

On reflection, there are two flies in this ointment.<\/p>\n

First, there\u2019s the enriched uranium fly.\u00a0Iran possesses about 900 pounds of enriched uranium, which could be made into about 10 nuclear weapons.<\/p>\n

What do you do about that stuff when you declare that the war is over and our troops are coming home? If the mullahs manage to hold power in Iran, the continued existence of enriched uranium means that Iran would remain able to manufacture nukes pretty quickly. Why did we go to war anyway?<\/p>\n

And if Iran collapses into sectarian violence or a failed state, the enriched uranium becomes yet more threatening.<\/p>\n

Doesn\u2019t the U.S. have to do something about the enriched uranium?<\/p>\n

You could bomb it, I suppose, which would result in a contaminated conventional bomb site (not a nuclear explosion), but you wouldn\u2019t be sure that you\u2019d eliminated the entire stockpile.<\/p>\n

You could decide to engage U.S. (or Israeli) ground troops in Iran, fighting their way to Isfahan, or Fordow, or Natanz, or wherever the uranium might be today. But the Israelis might decline to accept this task, and this is the sort of American commitment that Trump doesn\u2019t want to make (and for which he would pay a high political price).<\/p>\n

Or you could do a Venezuela-style midnight raid, sending in the Delta Force to extract the 900 pounds of uranium under cover of darkness.\u00a0 But the Iranians know that this type of raid is likely, expect it to happen within the next few weeks or months, and are surely prepared for it. That\u2019s not the kind of Delta Force action that I\u2019d like to be involved in (for reasons beyond even the obvious ones of my competence, age, and cowardice).<\/p>\n

Hmmm. \u2026<\/p>\n

Maybe Trump has to negotiate after all.<\/p>\n

The second fly in the Iranian ointment is the Strait of Hormuz.<\/p>\n

Suppose Trump announces that the United States has won and the war is over.<\/p>\n

Suppose the Iranians say, \u201cThank you very much.\u00a0We\u2019re pleased to hear that.\u00a0But we\u2019re still not letting oil pass through the Strait of Hormuz.\u00a0Global gas prices are high, and they\u2019re heading higher.\u201d<\/p>\n

Protecting traffic through the Strait over Iran\u2019s objection would be both terribly expensive and only partially effective.\u00a0Even with American escorts, the near-certainty that Iran would occasionally destroy ships passing through the Strait would keep the cost of insuring shipments high and the number of shipments low.<\/p>\n

Given the location of the Strait, and how narrow it is, the only way to eliminate the Iranian threat (without Iran\u2019s acquiescence) may be to send in ground troops to protect the shores surrounding the Strait.<\/p>\n

Again, that\u2019s precisely the kind of war that Trump doesn\u2019t want.<\/p>\n

Hmmm. \u2026\u00a0<\/p>\n

Maybe Trump has to negotiate with the Iranians after all.<\/p>\n

I don\u2019t see any \u201cunconditional surrender\u201d by Iran any time soon.<\/p>\n

And the possibility of Trump declaring victory and bringing home the troops is a little trickier than I originally thought.<\/p>\n

Instead, the parties may have to agree to a ceasefire and then negotiate about what Iran would do to safeguard the enriched uranium and open the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for the United States easing sanctions or doing something else to help Iran.<\/p>\n

Trump will surely declare victory, no matter the outcome.<\/p>\n

But isn\u2019t he going to look like a loser at the end of this mess?<\/p>\n

\n

Mark\u00a0Herrmann\u00a0spent 17 years as a partner at a leading international law firm and later oversaw litigation, compliance and employment matters at a large international company. He is the author of\u00a0<\/em><\/strong>The Curmudgeon\u2019s Guide to Practicing Law<\/em><\/strong><\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0<\/em><\/strong>Drug and Device Product Liability Litigation Strategy<\/em><\/strong><\/a>\u00a0(affiliate links). You can reach him by email at\u00a0<\/em><\/strong>inhouse@abovethelaw.com<\/em><\/strong><\/a>.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

The post 2 Problems With Calling Off The War In Iran<\/a> appeared first on Above the Law<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\"\"
(Photo by Win McNamee\/Getty Images)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

I suggested\u00a0last week<\/a>\u00a0that, between now and the beginning of summer, President Donald Trump will declare victory in Iran, end most of the military operations, and move on to his next manufactured crisis.\u00a0Trump could thus claim another victory and not worry about that nasty little war handing Democrats the midterms.\u00a0(Other things might yet hand the Democrats the midterms, but not the war.)<\/p>\n

We thus know in advance that the war will end in victory for us, and we know when it will end, and who cares about Iran, anyway?<\/p>\n

On reflection, there are two flies in this ointment.<\/p>\n

First, there\u2019s the enriched uranium fly.\u00a0Iran possesses about 900 pounds of enriched uranium, which could be made into about 10 nuclear weapons.<\/p>\n

What do you do about that stuff when you declare that the war is over and our troops are coming home? If the mullahs manage to hold power in Iran, the continued existence of enriched uranium means that Iran would remain able to manufacture nukes pretty quickly. Why did we go to war anyway?<\/p>\n

And if Iran collapses into sectarian violence or a failed state, the enriched uranium becomes yet more threatening.<\/p>\n

Doesn\u2019t the U.S. have to do something about the enriched uranium?<\/p>\n

You could bomb it, I suppose, which would result in a contaminated conventional bomb site (not a nuclear explosion), but you wouldn\u2019t be sure that you\u2019d eliminated the entire stockpile.<\/p>\n

You could decide to engage U.S. (or Israeli) ground troops in Iran, fighting their way to Isfahan, or Fordow, or Natanz, or wherever the uranium might be today. But the Israelis might decline to accept this task, and this is the sort of American commitment that Trump doesn\u2019t want to make (and for which he would pay a high political price).<\/p>\n

Or you could do a Venezuela-style midnight raid, sending in the Delta Force to extract the 900 pounds of uranium under cover of darkness.\u00a0 But the Iranians know that this type of raid is likely, expect it to happen within the next few weeks or months, and are surely prepared for it. That\u2019s not the kind of Delta Force action that I\u2019d like to be involved in (for reasons beyond even the obvious ones of my competence, age, and cowardice).<\/p>\n

Hmmm. \u2026<\/p>\n

Maybe Trump has to negotiate after all.<\/p>\n

The second fly in the Iranian ointment is the Strait of Hormuz.<\/p>\n

Suppose Trump announces that the United States has won and the war is over.<\/p>\n

Suppose the Iranians say, \u201cThank you very much.\u00a0We\u2019re pleased to hear that.\u00a0But we\u2019re still not letting oil pass through the Strait of Hormuz.\u00a0Global gas prices are high, and they\u2019re heading higher.\u201d<\/p>\n

Protecting traffic through the Strait over Iran\u2019s objection would be both terribly expensive and only partially effective.\u00a0Even with American escorts, the near-certainty that Iran would occasionally destroy ships passing through the Strait would keep the cost of insuring shipments high and the number of shipments low.<\/p>\n

Given the location of the Strait, and how narrow it is, the only way to eliminate the Iranian threat (without Iran\u2019s acquiescence) may be to send in ground troops to protect the shores surrounding the Strait.<\/p>\n

Again, that\u2019s precisely the kind of war that Trump doesn\u2019t want.<\/p>\n

Hmmm. \u2026\u00a0<\/p>\n

Maybe Trump has to negotiate with the Iranians after all.<\/p>\n

I don\u2019t see any \u201cunconditional surrender\u201d by Iran any time soon.<\/p>\n

And the possibility of Trump declaring victory and bringing home the troops is a little trickier than I originally thought.<\/p>\n

Instead, the parties may have to agree to a ceasefire and then negotiate about what Iran would do to safeguard the enriched uranium and open the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for the United States easing sanctions or doing something else to help Iran.<\/p>\n

Trump will surely declare victory, no matter the outcome.<\/p>\n

But isn\u2019t he going to look like a loser at the end of this mess?<\/p>\n

\n

Mark\u00a0Herrmann\u00a0spent 17 years as a partner at a leading international law firm and later oversaw litigation, compliance and employment matters at a large international company. He is the author of\u00a0<\/em><\/strong>The Curmudgeon\u2019s Guide to Practicing Law<\/em><\/strong><\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0<\/em><\/strong>Drug and Device Product Liability Litigation Strategy<\/em><\/strong><\/a>\u00a0(affiliate links). You can reach him by email at\u00a0<\/em><\/strong>[email\u00a0protected]<\/em><\/strong><\/a>.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

(Photo by Win McNamee\/Getty Images) I suggested\u00a0last week\u00a0that, between now and the beginning of summer, President Donald Trump will declare victory in Iran, end most of the military operations, and move on to his next manufactured crisis.\u00a0Trump could thus claim another victory and not worry about that nasty little war handing Democrats the midterms.\u00a0(Other things […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":146175,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[16],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-146174","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-above_the_law"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/xira.com\/p\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/donald-trump-GettyImages-1152627372-df6tnK.jpg?fit=1024%2C683&ssl=1","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/xira.com\/p\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/146174","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/xira.com\/p\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/xira.com\/p\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/xira.com\/p\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/xira.com\/p\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=146174"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/xira.com\/p\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/146174\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/xira.com\/p\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/146175"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/xira.com\/p\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=146174"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/xira.com\/p\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=146174"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/xira.com\/p\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=146174"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}