{"id":154051,"date":"2026-06-08T16:07:28","date_gmt":"2026-06-09T00:07:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/xira.com\/p\/2026\/06\/08\/trump-and-the-day-after\/"},"modified":"2026-06-08T16:07:28","modified_gmt":"2026-06-09T00:07:28","slug":"trump-and-the-day-after","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/xira.com\/p\/2026\/06\/08\/trump-and-the-day-after\/","title":{"rendered":"Trump And The Day After"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"\"
(Photo by Win McNamee\/Getty Images)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Everyone\u2019s worried about Election Day.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

What will Donald Trump do? Executive actions against mail-in voting?\u00a0Restrictive federal voting rules?\u00a0Weakened election security?\u00a0Intimidation at polling places?<\/p>\n

I\u2019m only slightly worried about Election Day.\u00a0I\u2019m more worried about the day after<\/em> Election Day.<\/p>\n

Most presidents are beginning the descent into lame duck status on the day after the midterms.<\/p>\n

I\u2019m afraid that Trump might begin morphing into Quackzilla.<\/p>\n

For example, would you care to live in Tehran in the days after the American midterm elections?\u00a0Congressional Republicans are currently restraining Trump\u2019s prosecution of the war in Iran by telling Trump that Republicans will lose their Congressional majorities if Trump continues to pursue an unpopular war that raises American gas prices.\u00a0Trump is holding back.<\/p>\n

But the day after the elections, restraint evaporates.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

That has a couple of implications.\u00a0First, if Iran is going to obtain relief from sanctions, it must achieve that goal between now and the midterm elections.\u00a0Trump might agree to sanctions relief now, to end the war and thus gain political benefit in November.\u00a0It\u2019s inconceivable that Trump will agree to sanctions relief after the elections; that would make Trump look damn near as weak as the Obama team that negotiated the original Iranian nuclear deal.\u00a0It will be interesting to see how Iran makes use of this.\u00a0How will Iran squeeze Trump to get relief from sanctions, and payment of money, between now and Election Day?<\/p>\n

Second, and even worse:\u00a0There\u2019s a perception that Trump has lost the war in Iran.\u00a0The United States has achieved most of its military objectives but none of Trump\u2019s political objectives:\u00a0No regime change; no restraints on supporting armed groups in the region; no restraints on non-nuclear weapons.\u00a0In fact, Iran\u2019s power may have increased because it\u2019s now undeniable that Iran can at any time close the Strait of Hormuz and cripple the global economy.<\/p>\n

What\u2019s that you say?\u00a0That makes Trump look like a loser?<\/p>\n

As January 6 proved, he might not take that too well.<\/p>\n

I\u2019m not sure that Trump will nuke Iran the day after the election, but he sure might tell the military to turn the campaign up a few notches to be sure the world knows who won.<\/p>\n

Election Day is restraining Trump.\u00a0The day (or month) after the election could be the nasty one.<\/p>\n

So, too, with other possible military adventures.\u00a0Wouldn\u2019t it burnish Trump\u2019s legacy to turn Cuba into the 51st state during the Trump administration?\u00a0And it\u2019s a sop to Marco Rubio, too.\u00a0What, other than the threat of political loss, is holding him back?<\/p>\n

Trump could also turn up the heat on Greenland.\u00a0Tough negotiations could take an even more aggressive turn if American troops landed in Nuuk (not to pursue a war, of course; just to be housed on American bases in the country).<\/p>\n

Or maybe it\u2019s time to pump oil money from Venezuela to the United States.\u00a0Opportunity\u2019s knocking, and there\u2019s money to be made.<\/p>\n

The making of money is something else that might attract Trump\u2019s attention once the moderating influence of the midterms is over.\u00a0Billions in crypto are nice, but tens of billion in real estate deals for Trump\u2019s sons, or oil money from Venezuela, or stakes in American businesses, are all possibilities, and Congress would likely do nothing.\u00a0If Republicans hold either branch of Congress \u2014 and holding the Senate seems likely \u2014 there\u2019s no chance of legislation to stop Trump.\u00a0If Republicans hold even 40 seats in the Senate, which is basically guaranteed, they could use the filibuster to stop any effective legislative response.<\/p>\n

So worry a little about Election Day, November 3, 2026.<\/p>\n

But worry a little more about November 4.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s when the gloves will really come off, and the world might be in for a surprise.<\/p>\n

\n

Mark\u00a0Herrmann\u00a0spent 17 years as a partner at a leading international law firm and later oversaw litigation, compliance and employment matters at a large international company. He is the author of\u00a0<\/em><\/strong>The Curmudgeon\u2019s Guide to Practicing Law<\/em><\/strong><\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0<\/em><\/strong>Drug and Device Product Liability Litigation Strategy<\/em><\/strong><\/a>\u00a0(affiliate links). You can reach him by email at\u00a0<\/em><\/strong>inhouse@abovethelaw.com<\/em><\/strong><\/a>.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

The post Trump And The Day After<\/a> appeared first on Above the Law<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\"\"
(Photo by Win McNamee\/Getty Images)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Everyone\u2019s worried about Election Day.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

What will Donald Trump do? Executive actions against mail-in voting?\u00a0Restrictive federal voting rules?\u00a0Weakened election security?\u00a0Intimidation at polling places?<\/p>\n

I\u2019m only slightly worried about Election Day.\u00a0I\u2019m more worried about the day after<\/em> Election Day.<\/p>\n

Most presidents are beginning the descent into lame duck status on the day after the midterms.<\/p>\n

I\u2019m afraid that Trump might begin morphing into Quackzilla.<\/p>\n

For example, would you care to live in Tehran in the days after the American midterm elections?\u00a0Congressional Republicans are currently restraining Trump\u2019s prosecution of the war in Iran by telling Trump that Republicans will lose their Congressional majorities if Trump continues to pursue an unpopular war that raises American gas prices.\u00a0Trump is holding back.<\/p>\n

But the day after the elections, restraint evaporates.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

That has a couple of implications.\u00a0First, if Iran is going to obtain relief from sanctions, it must achieve that goal between now and the midterm elections.\u00a0Trump might agree to sanctions relief now, to end the war and thus gain political benefit in November.\u00a0It\u2019s inconceivable that Trump will agree to sanctions relief after the elections; that would make Trump look damn near as weak as the Obama team that negotiated the original Iranian nuclear deal.\u00a0It will be interesting to see how Iran makes use of this.\u00a0How will Iran squeeze Trump to get relief from sanctions, and payment of money, between now and Election Day?<\/p>\n

Second, and even worse:\u00a0There\u2019s a perception that Trump has lost the war in Iran.\u00a0The United States has achieved most of its military objectives but none of Trump\u2019s political objectives:\u00a0No regime change; no restraints on supporting armed groups in the region; no restraints on non-nuclear weapons.\u00a0In fact, Iran\u2019s power may have increased because it\u2019s now undeniable that Iran can at any time close the Strait of Hormuz and cripple the global economy.<\/p>\n

What\u2019s that you say?\u00a0That makes Trump look like a loser?<\/p>\n

As January 6 proved, he might not take that too well.<\/p>\n

I\u2019m not sure that Trump will nuke Iran the day after the election, but he sure might tell the military to turn the campaign up a few notches to be sure the world knows who won.<\/p>\n

Election Day is restraining Trump.\u00a0The day (or month) after the election could be the nasty one.<\/p>\n

So, too, with other possible military adventures.\u00a0Wouldn\u2019t it burnish Trump\u2019s legacy to turn Cuba into the 51st state during the Trump administration?\u00a0And it\u2019s a sop to Marco Rubio, too.\u00a0What, other than the threat of political loss, is holding him back?<\/p>\n

Trump could also turn up the heat on Greenland.\u00a0Tough negotiations could take an even more aggressive turn if American troops landed in Nuuk (not to pursue a war, of course; just to be housed on American bases in the country).<\/p>\n

Or maybe it\u2019s time to pump oil money from Venezuela to the United States.\u00a0Opportunity\u2019s knocking, and there\u2019s money to be made.<\/p>\n

The making of money is something else that might attract Trump\u2019s attention once the moderating influence of the midterms is over.\u00a0Billions in crypto are nice, but tens of billion in real estate deals for Trump\u2019s sons, or oil money from Venezuela, or stakes in American businesses, are all possibilities, and Congress would likely do nothing.\u00a0If Republicans hold either branch of Congress \u2014 and holding the Senate seems likely \u2014 there\u2019s no chance of legislation to stop Trump.\u00a0If Republicans hold even 40 seats in the Senate, which is basically guaranteed, they could use the filibuster to stop any effective legislative response.<\/p>\n

So worry a little about Election Day, November 3, 2026.<\/p>\n

But worry a little more about November 4.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s when the gloves will really come off, and the world might be in for a surprise.<\/p>\n

\n

Mark\u00a0Herrmann\u00a0spent 17 years as a partner at a leading international law firm and later oversaw litigation, compliance and employment matters at a large international company. He is the author of\u00a0<\/em><\/strong>The Curmudgeon\u2019s Guide to Practicing Law<\/em><\/strong><\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0<\/em><\/strong>Drug and Device Product Liability Litigation Strategy<\/em><\/strong><\/a>\u00a0(affiliate links). You can reach him by email at\u00a0<\/em><\/strong>[email\u00a0protected]<\/em><\/strong><\/a>.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

(Photo by Win McNamee\/Getty Images) Everyone\u2019s worried about Election Day.\u00a0\u00a0 What will Donald Trump do? Executive actions against mail-in voting?\u00a0Restrictive federal voting rules?\u00a0Weakened election security?\u00a0Intimidation at polling places? I\u2019m only slightly worried about Election Day.\u00a0I\u2019m more worried about the day after Election Day. Most presidents are beginning the descent into lame duck status on the […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":154052,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[16],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-154051","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-above_the_law"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/xira.com\/p\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/donald-trump-GettyImages-1152627372-LbFUSF.jpg?fit=1024%2C683&ssl=1","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/xira.com\/p\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/154051","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/xira.com\/p\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/xira.com\/p\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/xira.com\/p\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/xira.com\/p\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=154051"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/xira.com\/p\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/154051\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/xira.com\/p\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/154052"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/xira.com\/p\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=154051"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/xira.com\/p\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=154051"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/xira.com\/p\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=154051"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}