{"id":161530,"date":"2026-08-26T13:15:58","date_gmt":"2026-08-26T21:15:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/xira.com\/p\/2026\/08\/26\/6-a-gallon-gas-a-huge-recession-or-ai-taking-your-job-pick-2\/"},"modified":"2026-08-26T13:15:58","modified_gmt":"2026-08-26T21:15:58","slug":"6-a-gallon-gas-a-huge-recession-or-ai-taking-your-job-pick-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/xira.com\/p\/2026\/08\/26\/6-a-gallon-gas-a-huge-recession-or-ai-taking-your-job-pick-2\/","title":{"rendered":"$6 A Gallon Gas, A Huge Recession, Or AI Taking Your Job: Pick 2"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"\"
<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Unless something changes dramatically in the last few days of the month, this will be the most expensive August ever<\/a> when it comes to gasoline. The national average for a gallon of regular is $4.10 (and probably even a bit more by the time you\u2019re reading this).<\/p>\n

While the prospect of gas being around $4 per gallon isn\u2019t exactly thrilling, it could get a lot worse very quickly. Before Donald Trump launched his foolish war against Iran, more than 100 ships were traversing the Strait of Hormuz every day, toll-free. Now, it is more like five<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve has dropped to its lowest level<\/a> since 1982 as America and some allies tap into oil reserves to try to stem the damage. This, obviously, cannot go on forever.<\/p>\n

Best case scenario, Trump declares victory, pulls the U.S. military away from Iran with no real deal in place, and Iranian authorities impose new tolls that are not too draconian. Even in that scenario, refilling reserves will take time, and the only thing that will keep oil prices from spiking anew is not ideal: lack of demand.<\/p>\n

Falling demand is already<\/a> mostly responsible for keeping gas prices from rising even higher than they are. Declining demand for oil, though, is a classic sign of economic weakness. Low demand means fewer people traveling and spending money. While so far cuts in oil consumption have come mostly from the Middle East itself as well as the Asia-Pacific region, Americans will have to use less gas too to prevent prices from rising to $6 a gallon or more given current geopolitical conditions.<\/p>\n

However, if Americans are using less gas, that means they are spending less money overall. Consumer spending is the main driver<\/a> of the U.S. economy, accounting for about 70% of America\u2019s gross domestic product. If consumers tighten their belts enough to keep gas prices down, that could drive us into a recession.<\/p>\n

Of course, a worker will not have much of a choice about spending if that worker\u2019s job is displaced by artificial intelligence. Should you believe the bloviation of the AI company CEOs, many of us need to watch our jobs in the months and years ahead.<\/p>\n

Nobody really knows exactly how AI will affect the job market. More realistic estimates from sources other than the tech companies themselves indicate that very AI-exposed jobs<\/a> will be most drastically impacted, while many others might see some changes yet largely retain their workforces.<\/p>\n

Still, other than replacing humans\u2019 jobs, not very many means of revenue generation on the table have a realistic shot of allowing big tech companies to recoup the tremendous amounts of money sunk into AI over the past few years. Right now, AI investment accounts for over a quarter<\/a> of GDP growth, and a staggering 8% of total GDP \u2014 not much compared to consumer spending, yet a dangerously large chunk for a single industry, especially one that has never been profitable.<\/p>\n

If AI does not prove profitable, 8% dropping out the bottom of our GDP would immediately throw us into a recession. If AI does prove profitable, that would mean so many jobs being lost that consumer spending would plummet and throw us into a recession.<\/p>\n

With cheaper gas, Americans would have more money in their pockets, and perhaps consumer spending could power the economy a while longer. Under current global circumstances, though, cheaper gas is not coming from anywhere other than a weak economy. The economy will be significantly weakened if AI takes over a bunch of human jobs or if AI fails to become profitable and the massive sums being dumped into AI development and infrastructure dry up.<\/p>\n

So, we can have cheap gas on plummeting demand because we are in a recession and lost our jobs. Or we can lose our jobs to AI, keep the economy growing with continued AI investment from the resultantly enriched tech companies, and have to deal with high gas prices despite underemployment. Or perhaps AI is mostly a flop, so we get to keep our jobs, but a big hole opens up in GDP as AI spending evaporates, pushing us into a recession.<\/p>\n

None of these are good possibilities. But I guess you get what you vote for.<\/p>\n

\n

Jonathan Wolf is a civil litigator and author of\u00a0<\/em><\/strong>Your Debt-Free JD<\/em><\/strong><\/a>\u00a0(affiliate link). He has taught legal writing, written for a wide variety of publications, and made it both his business and his pleasure to be financially and scientifically literate. Any views he expresses are probably pure gold, but are nonetheless solely his own and should not be attributed to any organization with which he is affiliated. He wouldn\u2019t want to share the credit anyway. He can be reached at\u00a0<\/em><\/strong>jon_wolf@hotmail.com<\/em><\/strong><\/a>.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

\n

The post $6 A Gallon Gas, A Huge Recession, Or AI Taking Your Job: Pick 2<\/a> appeared first on Above the Law<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\"\"
<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Unless something changes dramatically in the last few days of the month, this will be the most expensive August ever<\/a> when it comes to gasoline. The national average for a gallon of regular is $4.10 (and probably even a bit more by the time you\u2019re reading this).<\/p>\n

While the prospect of gas being around $4 per gallon isn\u2019t exactly thrilling, it could get a lot worse very quickly. Before Donald Trump launched his foolish war against Iran, more than 100 ships were traversing the Strait of Hormuz every day, toll-free. Now, it is more like five<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve has dropped to its lowest level<\/a> since 1982 as America and some allies tap into oil reserves to try to stem the damage. This, obviously, cannot go on forever.<\/p>\n

Best case scenario, Trump declares victory, pulls the U.S. military away from Iran with no real deal in place, and Iranian authorities impose new tolls that are not too draconian. Even in that scenario, refilling reserves will take time, and the only thing that will keep oil prices from spiking anew is not ideal: lack of demand.<\/p>\n

Falling demand is already<\/a> mostly responsible for keeping gas prices from rising even higher than they are. Declining demand for oil, though, is a classic sign of economic weakness. Low demand means fewer people traveling and spending money. While so far cuts in oil consumption have come mostly from the Middle East itself as well as the Asia-Pacific region, Americans will have to use less gas too to prevent prices from rising to $6 a gallon or more given current geopolitical conditions.<\/p>\n

However, if Americans are using less gas, that means they are spending less money overall. Consumer spending is the main driver<\/a> of the U.S. economy, accounting for about 70% of America\u2019s gross domestic product. If consumers tighten their belts enough to keep gas prices down, that could drive us into a recession.<\/p>\n

Of course, a worker will not have much of a choice about spending if that worker\u2019s job is displaced by artificial intelligence. Should you believe the bloviation of the AI company CEOs, many of us need to watch our jobs in the months and years ahead.<\/p>\n

Nobody really knows exactly how AI will affect the job market. More realistic estimates from sources other than the tech companies themselves indicate that very AI-exposed jobs<\/a> will be most drastically impacted, while many others might see some changes yet largely retain their workforces.<\/p>\n

Still, other than replacing humans\u2019 jobs, not very many means of revenue generation on the table have a realistic shot of allowing big tech companies to recoup the tremendous amounts of money sunk into AI over the past few years. Right now, AI investment accounts for over a quarter<\/a> of GDP growth, and a staggering 8% of total GDP \u2014 not much compared to consumer spending, yet a dangerously large chunk for a single industry, especially one that has never been profitable.<\/p>\n

If AI does not prove profitable, 8% dropping out the bottom of our GDP would immediately throw us into a recession. If AI does prove profitable, that would mean so many jobs being lost that consumer spending would plummet and throw us into a recession.<\/p>\n

With cheaper gas, Americans would have more money in their pockets, and perhaps consumer spending could power the economy a while longer. Under current global circumstances, though, cheaper gas is not coming from anywhere other than a weak economy. The economy will be significantly weakened if AI takes over a bunch of human jobs or if AI fails to become profitable and the massive sums being dumped into AI development and infrastructure dry up.<\/p>\n

So, we can have cheap gas on plummeting demand because we are in a recession and lost our jobs. Or we can lose our jobs to AI, keep the economy growing with continued AI investment from the resultantly enriched tech companies, and have to deal with high gas prices despite underemployment. Or perhaps AI is mostly a flop, so we get to keep our jobs, but a big hole opens up in GDP as AI spending evaporates, pushing us into a recession.<\/p>\n

None of these are good possibilities. But I guess you get what you vote for.<\/p>\n

\n

Jonathan Wolf is a civil litigator and author of\u00a0<\/em><\/strong>Your Debt-Free JD<\/em><\/strong><\/a>\u00a0(affiliate link). He has taught legal writing, written for a wide variety of publications, and made it both his business and his pleasure to be financially and scientifically literate. Any views he expresses are probably pure gold, but are nonetheless solely his own and should not be attributed to any organization with which he is affiliated. He wouldn\u2019t want to share the credit anyway. He can be reached at\u00a0<\/em><\/strong>[email\u00a0protected]<\/em><\/strong><\/a>.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Unless something changes dramatically in the last few days of the month, this will be the most expensive August ever when it comes to gasoline. The national average for a gallon of regular is $4.10 (and probably even a bit more by the time you\u2019re reading this). While the prospect of gas being around $4 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":161517,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[16],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-161530","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-above_the_law"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/xira.com\/p\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/GettyImages-1576376974-SUK6Dq.jpg?fit=744%2C470&ssl=1","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/xira.com\/p\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/161530","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/xira.com\/p\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/xira.com\/p\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/xira.com\/p\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/xira.com\/p\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=161530"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/xira.com\/p\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/161530\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/xira.com\/p\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/161517"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/xira.com\/p\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=161530"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/xira.com\/p\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=161530"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/xira.com\/p\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=161530"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}