The law school applicant boom isn’t going anywhere, and the people actually reading the applications say you can thank (or blame) the political climate.
According to a new Kaplan survey of admissions officers at 90 of the nation’s 198 ABA-accredited law schools (including 25 of the top 50, per U.S. News), a combined 91% expect the 2026-2027 cycle to be at least as competitive as the last one. That’s coming off a cycle that saw an 8% increase in applicants on top of an 18% surge the year before — 82,484 people applied this year, the largest applicant pool since the Great Recession.
But look under the hood and the frenzy is… leveling off? Just 9% of admissions officers predict the coming cycle will be “much more competitive,” 29% say “somewhat more competitive,” and 53% say it’ll be “about the same.” Compare that to last year’s Kaplan survey, where 13% said “much more,” 35% said “somewhat more,” and 42% said “about the same.” The share expecting things to get tougher dropped from 48% to 38%. Only 6% think this cycle will actually be easier. Meaning there’s a plateau in the law school rush, it’s just at a very high altitude.
As for why everyone suddenly wants a J.D., admissions officers aren’t mincing words. Looking back on the 2025-2026 cycle, 10% said the current political climate was the main factor behind the surge, 44% called it a major driver, and another 39% said it moderately drove the increase. Just 3% called politics a slight factor or no factor at all. Add in a rough post-college job market, and law school starts looking a lot like a three-year shelter from the storm (with tuition).
Of course, we’ve been tracking the political pipeline for years, and back in 2018, Kaplan’s survey of pre-law students confirmed the Trump Bump is real, with 32% saying politics motivated their decision to apply. A year later, that number had jumped to 45%, and by 2020, Kaplan was saying the effect appeared to have staying power. Nearly a decade later, the Trump Bump is on its second Trump administration.
Kaplan’s Glen Stohr, lead LSAT instructional designer, offered the obligatory note of caution, “While passions may be high, the primary motivation for pursuing a J.D. should be a genuine desire to practice law. The decision shouldn’t simply be about responding to the politics of the next few years, but preparing for a career that may span the next four decades.”
Which is solid advice, and advice we’ve been echoing for years. As we put it in 2019, “Remember kids, at worst, the Trump presidency will last eight years, but law school debt is forever.” Even if we didn’t expect the eight years to be nonconsecutive.
Earlier: U.S. Politics Drives Law School ‘Application Boom’
Want To Go To Law School? Get Ready For ‘Hyper Competition’ To Earn Your Seat
Law Schools Think Politics Is Driving Applications, But They Aren’t Sure That’s A Great Idea
Over 30 Percent Of Applicants Want To Go To Law School Because Of Trump
Kathryn Rubino is a Senior Editor at Above the Law, host of The Jabot podcast, and co-host of Thinking Like A Lawyer. AtL tipsters are the best, so please connect with her. Feel free to email her with any tips, questions, or comments and follow her on Twitter @Kathryn1 or Bluesky @Kathryn1
The post Politics Is Still Fueling The Law School Admissions Frenzy appeared first on Above the Law.
The law school applicant boom isn’t going anywhere, and the people actually reading the applications say you can thank (or blame) the political climate.
According to a new Kaplan survey of admissions officers at 90 of the nation’s 198 ABA-accredited law schools (including 25 of the top 50, per U.S. News), a combined 91% expect the 2026-2027 cycle to be at least as competitive as the last one. That’s coming off a cycle that saw an 8% increase in applicants on top of an 18% surge the year before — 82,484 people applied this year, the largest applicant pool since the Great Recession.
But look under the hood and the frenzy is… leveling off? Just 9% of admissions officers predict the coming cycle will be “much more competitive,” 29% say “somewhat more competitive,” and 53% say it’ll be “about the same.” Compare that to last year’s Kaplan survey, where 13% said “much more,” 35% said “somewhat more,” and 42% said “about the same.” The share expecting things to get tougher dropped from 48% to 38%. Only 6% think this cycle will actually be easier. Meaning there’s a plateau in the law school rush, it’s just at a very high altitude.
As for why everyone suddenly wants a J.D., admissions officers aren’t mincing words. Looking back on the 2025-2026 cycle, 10% said the current political climate was the main factor behind the surge, 44% called it a major driver, and another 39% said it moderately drove the increase. Just 3% called politics a slight factor or no factor at all. Add in a rough post-college job market, and law school starts looking a lot like a three-year shelter from the storm (with tuition).
Of course, we’ve been tracking the political pipeline for years, and back in 2018, Kaplan’s survey of pre-law students confirmed the Trump Bump is real, with 32% saying politics motivated their decision to apply. A year later, that number had jumped to 45%, and by 2020, Kaplan was saying the effect appeared to have staying power. Nearly a decade later, the Trump Bump is on its second Trump administration.
Kaplan’s Glen Stohr, lead LSAT instructional designer, offered the obligatory note of caution, “While passions may be high, the primary motivation for pursuing a J.D. should be a genuine desire to practice law. The decision shouldn’t simply be about responding to the politics of the next few years, but preparing for a career that may span the next four decades.”
Which is solid advice, and advice we’ve been echoing for years. As we put it in 2019, “Remember kids, at worst, the Trump presidency will last eight years, but law school debt is forever.” Even if we didn’t expect the eight years to be nonconsecutive.
Earlier: U.S. Politics Drives Law School ‘Application Boom’
Want To Go To Law School? Get Ready For ‘Hyper Competition’ To Earn Your Seat
Law Schools Think Politics Is Driving Applications, But They Aren’t Sure That’s A Great Idea
Over 30 Percent Of Applicants Want To Go To Law School Because Of Trump
Kathryn Rubino is a Senior Editor at Above the Law, host of The Jabot podcast, and co-host of Thinking Like A Lawyer. AtL tipsters are the best, so please connect with her. Feel free to email her with any tips, questions, or comments and follow her on Twitter @Kathryn1 or Bluesky @Kathryn1
